Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Friday 28th February)
Best Days: Tuesday at exposed spots, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday at exposed spots
The weekend started off fun, but Sunday was the day to surf with a strong new SW groundswell under moderate onshore winds. The swell was strong enough to remain straight even with the onshore winds before S/SE sea breezes did more damage into the afternoon.
Today the surf was much cleaner with an easing 2-3ft of swell opening up plenty of options across the South Arm.
This week (Mar 3 - 7)
This week won't be anywhere near as active as the previous one with the storm track being more focussed up towards WA resulting in swells from the W/SW and with far less consistency.
In saying this, a mid-latitude front pushing under the Bight and towards us over the coming days should produce a fun but inconsistent 2ft+ of swell for Thursday under offshore NW winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes. This swell will then fade Friday with nothing significant due until the weekend.
This weekend onwards (Mar 8 onwards)
This weekend will be good to suss out some more exposed spots with the arrival of a very inconsistent long-range SW groundswell under N/NE winds.
This groundswell will be generated in our far swell window, in the Heard Island region during today and the next couple of days, with a vigorous polar low forecast to generate winds in the 35-55kt range. This low will then weaken slowly while tracking east along the polar shelf before breaking down south-southwest of WA Wednesday.
Due to the extremely large distance between the source of the swell and our coast there'll be a lot of size loss and the swell will be very inconsistent, building to 2ft Saturday afternoon at Clifton before easing Sunday. With the size it will be worth hunting around the coast for some more size under the favourable N/NE winds.
Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards, but we'll review this Wednesday.