Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/03/2014 - 13:58
South Australian Forecast (issued Monday 3rd March)
Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday on the Mid, Thursday on the Mid, Saturday morning and Sunday morning down South
The weekend started off poor with fresh onshore winds and an easing swell across the South Coast Saturday while the Mid Coast was tiny to flat.
A strong new SW groundswell filled in Sunday though under lighter SE winds during the morning, but this favoured the Mid Coast over the South Coast with a fun and inconsistent 1.5ft wave across the region.
The groundswell peaked during the day yesterday and has since eased into today back from 1-1.5ft on the Mid and 3-4ft+ down South with more favourable offshore winds.
This week (Mar 3 - 7)
The surf is looking great across the South Coast tomorrow, while the Mid should see good waves into the evening.
This will be a result of winds swinging offshore from the N'th down South and then variable into the afternoon with a small to moderate swell, while a new W/SW groundswell is due on the Mid. This groundswell was generated by a strong mid-latitude low firing up west-southwest of WA over the weekend, and as such the swell will be inconsistent but still reach 1ft to possibly 2ft tomorrow afternoon.
The swell will ease into Wednesday but conditions will be poor as a fresh S/SW change moves through. Try the late session on the Mid if you're desperate for a wave as winds should swing more S/SE.
A better SW groundswell is due on Thursday linked to a secondary mid-latitude front firing up on the tail of the mid-latitude low responsible for Tuesday/Wednesday's swell, pushing in under the Bight while aiming a fetch of strong gale-force W/SW winds towards us.
This swell will be best suited to the Mid Coast with inconsistent 1-2ft waves due under offshore SE winds, while Victor will see plenty more size but average conditions with the SE winds.
Friday won't be any better down the South Coast with a dropping swell and persistent SE'ly.
This weekend onwards (Mar 8 onwards)
As touched on in last Friday's update, this weekend is looking really fun with the arrival of a strong but inconsistent SW groundswell with favourable winds.
The source of this swell will be an intense polar low firing up in the Heard Island region today, generating a fetch of gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our far swell window (some 3,500km away) pictured right. This system will then push along the polar shelf towards us while slowly weakening and then breaking down south-southwest of WA.
This will result in an extremely inconsistent but strong long-period SW groundswell that should build Saturday afternoon, peak overnight and then ease slowly Sunday.
Winds on Saturday morning will be OK and from the E/NE but Sunday looks excellent with light morning N'ly winds ahead of a weak shallow S'ly change.
Size wise, the South Coast should see inconsistent 3-4ft waves at Middleton while Waits should offer 4-5ft sets. The Mid Coast won't like the SW direction or long-period swell as much and is only expected to see 1ft+ sets.
Into next week there's plenty of W/SW swell on the cards, but more on this Wednesday.