Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Friday 28th February)
Best Days: Early Saturday, Sunday for experienced surfers, Monday, Thursday morning
Yesterday started off slow with the new swell not showing at dawn, but a solid increase was seen during the day, albeit with winds swinging onshore.
This morning the swell eased back to 2-3ft or so under more favourable offshores, and we should see the swell continuing to drop into the afternoon.
This weekend (Mar 1 - 2)
Tomorrow will be good for a morning paddle in small clean waves, but heading into Sunday we should see a strong pulse of inconsistent SW groundswell filling in and peaking during the middle of the day.
This much talked about swell started its life as Tropical Cyclone Guito between Madagascar and South Africa, with Guito drifting south and being absorbed into the westerly storm track last weekend.
Since then the remnants of Guito formed the catalyst for the formation of a deep and powerful polar low east of Heard Island, with satellite wind observations confirming a fetch of 35-55kt W'ly winds being aimed in our swell window.
The polar low has since moved towards us along the polar shelf while continuing to generate winds in the 35-50kt range, producing a large SW groundswell (pictured right) for Sunday in the 3-5ft range across Clifton (much larger at exposed spots across the state).
Winds unfortunately look like they'll linger from the S/SW (without too much strength) in the wake of a change on Saturday, but with the strength of the swell there should be some good waves across the region.
Next week onwards (Mar 3 onwards)
Sunday's swell will ease slowly through Monday, likely dropping from 2-3ft or so during the morning but winds will be favourable and offshore from the N/NW before tending variable into the afternoon.
Unfortunately there's nothing too major on the cards for the rest of the week with the westerly storm track expected to be focussed more towards WA resulting in small, inconsistent and long-range W/SW groundswells for the South Arm.
In saying this, a mid-latitude low spawning off the activity pushing up towards WA should aim a burst of W/SW gales through our swell window Tuesday evening, generating a small pulse of swell to 2ft or so later Wednesday and Thursday morning.
Winds look best Thursday morning, so this will be the day to aim for a surf.