Submitted by Craig on Fri, 02/28/2014 - 09:48
South Australian Forecast (issued Friday 28th February)
Best Days: Sunday morning down South (arvo on the Mid), Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning on the Mid Coast
Yesterday started off fun with the beginnings of a new S/SW groundswell to 3-4ft or so across the South Coast under light E'ly winds during the morning, creating lumpy/peaky waves. The swell built further during the afternoon but conditions deteriorated with strong S/SE sea breezes.
Today a peak in S/SW groundswell and S/SE windswell has been seen to 3-5ft across most spots and winds again eased off and tended lighter E'ly creating lumpy conditions. We can expect the swell to hang around most of the day but winds will freshen from the S/SE again.
The Mid Coast is clean as a whistle but struggling in the 0.5ft range.
This weekend (Mar 1 - 3)
Give the surf a miss tomorrow as today's swell is expected to really back off overnight and moderate to fresh SE winds are expected to create poor conditions.
Sunday's large and powerful SW groundswell is still on track but unfortunately winds are still looking to spoil the party.
This large swell has been generated by the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Guito dropping south from Madagascar, into the westerly storm track before deepening into a vigorous polar low east of Heard Island during the middle of the week.
Satellite observations confirm a fetch of 35-55kt W/SW winds being aimed in our swell window, and while the system has since weakened a touch while moving east along the polar shelf, it is still continuing to generate winds up to 35-50kts.
This is setting in motion a large and powerful SW groundswell that's due to arrive around dawn Sunday morning and spike rapidly to a large but very inconsistent 4-5ft across Middleton with 5-6ft sets at Goolwa and Waits. The Mid Coast should also see 1ft+ sets during the day on the favourable parts of the tide.
Winds should swing E'ly during the morning Sunday creating more favourable conditions than Saturday but there'll be still be a lot of wobble, lump and peakiness to the swell.
You're better off heading down on Monday when winds should swing E/NE and the swell slowly eases.
Next week onwards (Mar 3 onwards)
As touched on above, Monday should offer much cleaner waves across the South Coast with the easing SW groundswell, while Tuesday will offer the straightest surf under a straight N'ly wind. There won't be much size left though with 2ft+ sets expected across Middleton and 3ft waves out at Waits and Parsons. Get in during the morning though as a weak change will move through during the afternoon.
There's plenty more swell on the cards for the second half of next week and beyond with a strong node of the Long Wave Trough expected to anchor just south-west of WA, directing a series of strong polar fronts up towards WA (pictured right).
This will result in a run of more westerly groundswells from Wednesday onwards, but there'll still be a couple of SW pulses for the South Coast.
The first is due on Tuesday afternoon and should offer inconsistent 1-1.5ft waves on the Mid Coast but winds will unfortunately swing onshore as outlined above.
A mid-latitude low racing in under the state mid-week should then generate a good SW groundswell for the South Coast later Wednesday and Thursday but again fresh SE winds will create poor conditions. The Mid should offer better 1-2ft waves and cleaner conditions.
Next weekend is looking much better with a long-range SW groundswell on the cards under offshore winds, but we'll review this Monday.
Was at a certain left hand 'bowly' wave over yorkes today and I have never seen so many crew on it, 10 in the water when I got there with 3 wave sets then another 15 tools walking down to crowd an inconsistent wave even more, don't u love it when spots get exposed on the internet... Good thing I have had it to myself a few times lately during the week... Woohoo
Yeah weekend's when there's swell would be the hardest to get a wave to yourself, but those in between days and mid-week sessions are the gems I reckon (when I used to live back in SA).
That and there hasn't been an offshore at victor in months.or any reall swell on the mid..it was ALWAYS gunna be packed. Craigs right....but sshh ;)