Submitted by Craig on Thu, 02/27/2014 - 12:23
Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 27th February)
Best Days: Fun waves over the coming days with larger and better surf Monday through Friday
Tomorrow and this weekend (Feb 28 - Mar 2)
The good pulses of S/SW groundswell seen the last few days started to back off yesterday afternoon, and this morning the size was down again.
A slight kick in long-range and inconsistent S/SW groundswell should keep 3-4ft sets hitting exposed spots through tomorrow morning, while the weekend is expected to offer a touch less activity with generally light variable winds that will increase a touch from the West on Sunday.
Next week (Mar 3 - 7 onwards)
The favourable forecast for next week is still on track with a series of long-range but good S/SW groundswells due to ebb and pulse each day.
The strongest and largest increase is due on Monday afternoon and Tuesday generated by a deep and powerful polar low forming east of Heard Island a couple of days ago.
This system started its life as Tropical Cyclone Guito between Madagascar and South Africa, with Guito being absorbed into the westerly storm track and deepening significantly as it reached polar latitudes.
Yesterday afternoon and evening a fetch of 35-55kt W/SW winds were aimed through our far swell window but since then the low has tracked further east-southeast and away from us.
What will result is a long-range, strong but very inconsistent S/SW groundswell that is expected to offer 5-6ft+ sets across exposed locations later Monday and early Tuesday.
Two additional pulses of slightly more consistent but also slightly smaller S/SW groundswell are due Wednesday and then Thursday owing to a couple of secondary polar fronts pushing up quickly on the back of the deep polar low.
While not as strong, these two systems will push further north towards us resulting in more consistency than Monday/Tuesday's swell.
Winds for the most part are expected to be light to moderate from the West, although Thursday will see a touch more strength in the winds.
Longer term, the next significant swell is expected to arrive next weekend and peak Sunday from the SW, but this again be from distant polar frontal activity in the Heard Island region. We'll discuss this more next Tuesday.