Submitted by Craig on Wed, 02/26/2014 - 17:46
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th February)
Best Days: Friday morning at south swell magnets
A fun pulse of S'ly groundswell filled in yesterday morning but faded into the afternoon under N'ly winds. Today a NE windswell took the place of the S'ly swell with morning offshores that have since shifted onshore.
This week (Feb 26 - 28)
Tomorrow won't offer much in the way of surf with tiny levels of fading NE windswell ahead of a possible late increase in S'ly groundswell.
A better pulse of S'ly groundswell is due Friday though owing to a strong polar front pushing up towards us and then past the south-east corner of the state during tomorrow.
This should provide inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches (much smaller elsewhere) during the morning under variable winds, but N/NE sea breezes are due into the afternoon.
This weekend onwards (Mar 1 onwards)
There won't be much S'ly swell leftover into Saturday but a good pulse of S'ly groundswell is due on Sunday afternoon as the remnants of a strong polar low in the Southern Indian Ocean moves along the polar shelf and then up towards Tassie on Saturday.
This low is actually the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Guito that was positioned between Madagascar and South Africa late last week, and then absorbed into the westerly storm track over the weekend.
Long-period fore-runners are due Sunday morning but we'll see the bulk of the swell arriving behind this in the 16-17s range, building later in the day to 2-3ft or so across the most exposed south swell magnets on the coast. Everywhere else is expected to be tiny to flat.
Unfortunately winds will be onshore as the swell fills in and from the E/SE, while as the swell eases Monday NE winds look to also create average conditions.
Longer term we're looking at some fun NE windswell into the middle of next week possibly followed by a weak S'ly windswell, but check back here Friday for the latest on this.