Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Wednesday 26th February)
Best Days: Early tomorrow, Friday, early Sunday, Monday
Yesterday saw fun clean waves with an easing swell from Monday in the 2ft range, while today the surf really bottomed out with tiny surf seen across Clifton.
This week (Feb 26 - 28)
The coming period will be more than active with a couple of strong pulses of groundswell on the cards for tomorrow and then Sunday.
Looking into tomorrow's pulse and an amplification of the Long Wave Trough has steered a strong polar front up through our swell window the last day or so and the swell off this system should fill in strongly tomorrow and peak in the 3ft to occasionally 4ft range during the afternoon.
Winds will be OK early and from the W/NW (when the swell should be 2-3ft or so) but as the swell peaks, poor SW winds are due.
Friday should offer cleaner conditions with an offshore N/NW breeze and easing 3ft or so of swell, so aim to surf then.
This weekend onwards (Mar 1 onwards)
Saturday isn't expected to offer too much in the way of swell, but Sunday's SW groundswell has been upgraded since Monday as a result of the vigorous polar low generating the swell maintaining its strength longer than forecast on Monday as it moves along the polar shelf.
This polar low started its life as Tropical Cyclone Guito between Madagascar and South Africa late last week. Guito then drifted south-east into the westerly storm track, making an extra-tropical transition and has since formed into a deep and powerful polar low east of Heard Island.
This system should be generating a fetch of gale to storm-force (35-55kt+) W/SW winds through our far swell window (south-west of WA) this afternoon but will then track slowly towards us along the polar shelf while maintaining a fetch of 35-45kt winds (pictured right).
What will result is a strong and powerful SW groundswell that's expected to fill in Sunday and peak in the 3-5ft range across Clifton. Winds are a little dicey though and should be early from the W/NW ahead of a shift to the SW during the morning.
Monday will be much cleaner and good all day with an easing swell from 3ft under offshore N/NW tending variable winds, so plan your diary around a morning surf.
Into next week there's nothing too major on the cards besides a small long-range W/SW groundswell therefore make the most of the coming swell and check back here on Friday for confirmation on Sunday's size and winds.