Submitted by Craig on Wed, 02/26/2014 - 16:36
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th January)
Best Days: Plenty of good waves working around the pulses of swell and winds
A slow drop in size continued across the state through yesterday with favourable offshore winds for exposed locations. Today the surf has bottomed out around Perth and Mandurah, but a small increase in S/SW groundswell has kept inconsistent 3ft sets hitting the South West.
This week (Feb 26 - 28)
Today's small increase in S/SW groundswell in the South West should peak tomorrow morning across most spots and hold all day around Gero under favourable E/NE winds that should tend light and variable into the afternoon. Friday will be small and only surfable at the most exposed breaks across the state as good E/NE winds persist.
This weekend onwards (Mar 1 onwards)
Our strong SW groundswell expected Saturday across the state has been upgraded slightly from Monday with the intense polar low (ex-Tropical Cyclone Guito) generating the swell expected to maintain its strength a little longer than earlier forecast.
This low is currently deepening to our south-west (east of Heard Island) and should aim a fetch of gale to storm-force (35-55kt+) W/SW winds through our swell window during this afternoon and evening (pictured right). While the wind speeds are incredible, the only issue with this low is that it's drifting on a less than favourable east-southeast track across our swell window rather than along it.
In saying this, we are still expecting a large and strong SW groundswell to arrive overnight Friday in the South West and peak in the 6-8ft range with bigger bomb sets at offshore reefs and bommies.
Perth should see 2ft+ sets while Gero is expected to peak in the 4-5ft+ range Saturday afternoon.
The fly in the ointment will be the winds. While early morning winds should be E/NE across most spots, a swing to the NE is expected mid-morning ahead of a light W/NW'ly into the afternoon. Therefore in the Margaret River region, early will be the go before winds swing too north.
Sunday is looking much better north of Bunbury with offshore morning winds, while to the south and around Margs less favourable S/SE winds are expected.
Next week is looking active with front after front expected to develop to our south-west generating multiple pulse of SW groundswell. The only issue is local winds and they'll generally be from the S/SE besides Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
The best pulse of swell for Perth is due on Monday morning as a mid-latitude low develops much further north than the other systems over the weekend (pictured right), generating a more W/SW groundswell that should peak in the 2ft+ range.
Wednesday morning will be the day to surf around Margs with favourable winds from the E/SE and a new pulse of SW groundswell to 4-6ft or so.
Looking into the longer term and there's a chance for a larger SW groundswell at the end of the week similar to the swell due this Saturday but we'll review this Friday.