Submitted by Craig on Wed, 02/26/2014 - 14:16
South Australian Forecast (issued Wednesday 26th January)
Best Days: Sunday on the Mid for tiny peelers, Monday morning down South for peaky but solid waves, early Tuesday down South for cleaner conditions
The surf was great down South yesterday morning with a solid secondary pulse of S/SW groundswell to 3-4ft with smooth glassy conditions under light variable winds. Onshore winds started to creep in later in the morning and strengthened into the afternoon, creating poor conditions.
The Mid Coast saw tiny 0.5ft to some-times 1ft waves with clean conditions early before the sea breeze kicked in.
Today conditions are average down South with the onshore wind persisting overnight, while the Mid Coast is cleaner but tiny.
This week (Feb 26 -28)
A solid mix of S/SW groundswell and S/SE windswell are expected into the end of the week across the South Coast but while there'll be plenty of size (likely 4-5ft or so), conditions will be terrible with fresh S/SE winds tomorrow and stronger SE tending S/SE winds Friday. The Mid Coast will be clean but effectively flat.
So give the next few days a miss.
This weekend onwards (Mar 1 onwards)
Saturday will be another lay day with a drop in swell from Friday and fresh to strong SE-S/SE winds leaving no real options for a decent wave.
Our groundswell for Sunday has been upgraded since Monday with the polar low linked to this swell now maintaining its strength once it pushes under the country (whereas on Monday it was expected to fade rapidly).
This weather system amazingly started its life as Tropical Cyclone Guito between Madagascar and South Africa late last week. Over the weekend, Guito drifted south-east and made an extra-tropical transition before being swept up in the westerly storm track.
As ex-TC Guito was pushed further towards Antarctica it started to deepen and then formed into a deep and powerful polar low last night.
This low is now aiming a fetch of gale to storm-force (35-55kt+) W/SW winds through our far swell window, south-west of WA (the evolution of the storm is shown right).
As touched on above, recent updates have the low maintaining its strength while pushing east along the polar shelf, closer to us, continuing to aim 35-50kt winds on the edge of our swell window.
This will produce a very strong and powerful SW groundswell for Sunday that's expected to arrive around dawn and jump to a strong 4-5ft at Middleton with 5-6ft+ sets at Goolwa and Waits.
The only issue is the winds, which unfortunately look to still be fresh from the SE. The Mid Coast will offer cleaner conditions and the swell should provide inconsistent 1ft+ sets mainly for beginners and longboarders.
Monday should offer better conditions down South with a swing to NE winds during the morning but there'll still be a lot of peakiness and lump from the previous days and nights onshores.
Tuesday will be even cleaner with morning N'ly winds, but you'll have to get in early before a S'ly change pushes through.
Longer term we may see another large pulse of S/SW groundswell later next week across the state, but winds will again be poor and from the SE. Check back here on Friday for confirmation on this though.