Submitted by Craig on Tue, 02/25/2014 - 13:47
Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 25th February)
Best Days: Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Monday onwards next week
This week and weekend (Feb 25 - Mar 2)
A long-range but fun pulse of SW groundswell should be filling in across the Indonesian archipelago today under light variable winds.
This swell should ease slowly through tomorrow, but the morning should still offer inconsistent 3-5ft sets.
A slow downwards trend is expected further into the end of the week and weekend as winds remain variable up until Sunday, when they'll pick up a touch from the west.
Next week onwards (Mar 3 onwards)
The outlook for next week is a lot more active than the current period as a series of strong polar frontal systems push up towards WA over the coming days.
The first and strongest swell (peaking later Monday) will arrive from quite a funky source. Late last week Tropical Cyclone Guito was positioned between Madagascar and South Africa but over the weekend it drifted south-east and was then absorbed into the westerly storm track.
This system is now deepening into an intense polar low just east of Heard Island and at its peak will aim a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through our far southern swell window (above right).
Now the track of this system won't be especially good and away from us towards the east-southeast, and also the large distance between the source of the swell and us will result in a very inconsistent and lully swell. But... the swell will be very strong with peak periods of 19-20s arriving late Sunday, but the bulk of the swell will fall in the 15-16s bracket and peak later Monday to an inconsistent 5-6ft at exposed spots.
A secondary more consistent S/SW groundswell is due Wednesday though, followed by a tertiary pulse Thursday owing to a secondary polar low pushing up quickly in the wake of the system generating Monday's swell (below right).
This front will push further north into the Indian Ocean and closer towards us, resulting in a greater consistency, and also good sized swell in the 4-5ft range.
Winds through next week are expected to generally be light to moderate from the west, favouring slightly protected east-facing breaks over more exposed spots.
Therefore next week is looking great across the region, with plenty of swell and favourable winds to work around.
Longer term we should see a pulse in very long-range groundswell later next weekend, with not much beyond this.