Submitted by Craig on Mon, 02/24/2014 - 16:45
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st January)
Best Days: Thursday morning at exposed spots, Saturday morning
Saturday started off slow and clean ahead of a new SW groundswell arriving into the afternoon. Winds tended variable into the early afternoon opening up a window of fun waves at exposed spots, but it was Sunday that offered the best waves with a peak in groundswell and morning offshores.
Today the swell was down a touch across most spots (besides Gero) and winds were less than favourable in the South West.
This week (Feb 24 - 28)
There's not too much on the cards for this week, with the easing trend in swell expected to continue through tomorrow and into Wednesday morning.
A slight kick in S/SW groundswell is due in the South West Wednesday afternoon ahead of a peak on Thursday morning, and this will be the time to surf with a morning offshore E/NE breeze. Mandurah and Perth metro beaches aren't expected to see much from this swell, but Gero should see a kick in size Thursday afternoon.
Friday will be small but conditions will be great again during the morning.
This weekend onwards (Mar 1 onwards)
Our funky SW groundswell emanating off ex-Tropical Cyclone Guito is still on track for Saturday but the size is shifting around a bit depending on the formation of the deep and powerful low.
Late last week Tropical Cyclone Guito sitting between Madagascar and South Africa drifted south-east and then over the weekend was absorbed into the westerly storm track and is now moving south-east towards Heard Island.
Once this system moves just east of Heard Island tomorrow afternoon it's expected to deepen into a polar low and aim a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through our swell window.
The positives regarding this system are the core fetch wind speeds to 35-55kt but the east-southeast track of the low will be less than ideal (pictured right).
We're probably looking at 6ft+ sets in the South West, 2ft waves around Perth and 3-5ft waves around Gero, but very inconsistent.
Winds are looking good early and from the NE, but a shift to the N'th will be seen during the morning, favouring some breaks over others.
Longer term there's a couple of follow up SW groundswells but not to the size of Saturday's, but we'll look at this again on Wednesday.