Submitted by Craig on Fri, 02/21/2014 - 17:46
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th February)
Best Days: Early Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday morning
Wednesday's NE swell hung in at 2ft to occasionally 3ft across the coast yesterday morning with less than favourable and fresh N/NW winds at dawn but these slowly shifted more offshore as the swell eased.
Today started off tiny but satellite passes show that as the deep low that's been moving across the state pushed east of us today, a fetch of 35-40kt S/SW winds were generated in our swell window. This should of kicked up a sharp increase in S'ly swell this afternoon but with average E/NE sea breezes.
This weekend (Feb 22 onwards)
While the low responsible for this afternoon's increase in S'ly swell is pushing off quickly to the east, we should still see some decent S'ly groundswell tomorrow morning coming from a fetch of S/SE gales wrapping around its southern flank.
This swell will ease rapidly during the day so get out early for the most size and best conditions under morning offshores.
If you miss tomorrow morning, all is not lost as another strong pulse of S'ly groundswell is expected across south facing beaches Sunday and then Monday afternoon as a couple of vigorous polar fronts push up one after the other from deep below the south-west of us towards New Zealand over the coming days.
The strongest increase is due Sunday, peaking around 3-5ft across south swell magnets and under freshening N/NW tending NW winds.
Monday looks dicey as a S'ly change moves through and the swell eases, but the secondary front should generate 3-4ft of S'ly swell for Tuesday morning under great NW tending W/NW winds.
It should be noted that open beaches will be much smaller and not see much size at all. So seek out those super exposed south facing spots for the most of the swells expected over the coming period.
Into the longer term, we may see another S'ly groundswell pulse later in the week but with average winds. Check back here Monday for the latest on this.