Submitted by Craig on Fri, 02/21/2014 - 16:33
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st January)
Best Days: Saturday, early Sunday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning
Nothing to really talk about with a small to tiny amounts of swell and fresh to strong offshore morning winds.
This weekend (Feb 22 - 23)
There's been no change to the SW groundswell pulses expected over the weekend across the West Australian coast with Sunday expected to offer the most size under early offshore winds ahead of a shallow afternoon S/SW change.
Next week onwards (Feb 24 onwards)
Sunday's swell should ease slowly through Monday and further through Tuesday with this easing trend buffered by continued weak polar frontal activity through our swell window over the coming days.
Winds will be less than ideal in the South West though with S/SE winds Monday and SE winds Tuesday.
There's nothing major on the cards for the end of next week but heading into the start of next weekend we're looking at a much better long-range SW groundswell pulse across the state.
This will amazingly be linked to Tropical Cyclone Guito which is currently sitting between Madagascar and South Africa (shown right).
Guito is currently weakening and forecast to make an extra-tropical transition while drifting south-east over the weekend before then being absorbed into the westerly storm track.
When these tropical systems merge with the cold air in the Southern Ocean they usually deepen and feed the polar storms, and this will be the case with a deep and powerful polar low expected to form in the Heard Island region.
Wind strengths within this low will reach the gale to storm-force range but the only problem is that it will be a solitary system and track a little unfavourably to the east-southeast.
In saying this a large and inconsistent SW groundswell should still result, peaking next Saturday to 6ft to occasionally 8ft around Margs, 2ft+ in Perth and 4-5ft around Gero. Winds are a little too hard to call this early but check back here on Monday for an update on this system.