Submitted by Craig on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 17:30
Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Wednesday 19th February)
Best Days: Possibly later Thursday, Friday in protected spots, Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday
Tiny surf was seen through yesterday and into today but we've got a real dynamic low forming this evening right over the state. Read on for more details.
This week (Feb 19 - 21)
We're right on the edge of the formation of a deep and powerful low pressure system across our state this evening and the models have firmed up somewhat on where it's expected to be positioned and aim all its energy into.
Unfortunately the early and strongest stages of the low will be when it's positioned just out of the South Arm's swell window, directly off the South West corner of the state (pictured right). This will be the case during tomorrow where a fetch of gale to storm-force S'ly winds are expected to be aimed towards Victoria's West Coast and our West Coast.
So give tomorrow a miss as there's nothing major expected until maybe later in the day when some S'ly swell spreading radially off the southern flank of the low sneaks into the South Arm.
Friday however will see a lot more action as the low is expected to shift east during Thursday evening and now luckily aim a fetch of gale-force S/SW winds through our swell window right up until Friday morning (pictured right).
This should generate a large pulse of S'ly swell for Friday morning that will then be replaced by a secondary SW groundswell into the afternoon as the low continues east and winds around the low swing more SW.
Therefore the prospects for good waves in protected spots is still on Friday morning with the S'ly swell and SW winds. As the low moves further east though we'll see winds swing more to the W/SW.
This weekend onwards (Feb 22 onwards)
The S'ly swell will be all but gone on Saturday but a good pulse of SW groundswell is due to fill in and peak Sunday generated by a strong polar front firing up on the tail of the low.
This will see a fetch of SW gales generated on an already active sea state producing a good 2-3ft of swell for Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.
Winds will be favourable and from the W/NW Saturday morning, while Sunday looks great with offshore NW tending W/NW winds keeping Clifton clean all day.
Yet another slightly smaller pulse of SW groundswell is due into early next week by a healthy polar front but too a slightly smaller size than the weekend's pulse.
Longer term, the outlook remains active with small pulses of long-range SW groundswell due to keep Clifton and other exposed beaches busy but we've got plenty to deal with in the short term.