Submitted by Craig on Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:50
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th February)
Best Days: Monday - Wednesday at south swell magnets
The weekend didn't offer much in the way of surf, but into today a fun S/SE swell has peaked to 2-3ft with OK conditions under a light SE'ly. The swell should of eased into this afternoon though as NE sea breezes developed.
This week (Feb 17 - 21)
There's nothing in the way of size due until Wednesday when we should see a building NE windswell across the coast. This will be linked to an in-feed of NE winds into a deepening low pressure system that's expected to intensify significantly across the state.
Winds early will be a little average but we should see a more variable breeze later in the day creating fun peaky waves.
Thursday morning will still offer fun, small levels of NE windswell but a strengthening offshore wind as the low starts to move east will kick it in the guts.
Of greater importance is the movement of this low, which will form as a result of a surface trough drifting south-east from South Australia and feed off a deep pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere.
The models are still struggling to pick where this low will stall and at this stage all the energy looks to be aimed west of the entrance of the South Arm through Thursday.
But heading into Friday we should see the low move east and into our swell window with an afternoon increase in acute S'ly swell expected (pictured right) to at least the medium sized range. Winds should be favourable and from the W/SW tending variable, but we'll have to review this on Wednesday.
This weekend onwards (Feb 22 onwards)
Unfortunately the S'ly swell is likely to be short-lived and peak overnight Friday with a rapid drop through Saturday under morning offshores. So get in early at south swell magnets for the biggest and cleanest waves.
Longer term, we may see a secondary pulse of S'ly groundswell Sunday/Monday across the coast owing to a strong polar front pushing up behind the low, but we'll review this also on Wednesday.