Submitted by thermalben on Wed, 02/05/2014 - 07:14
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 5th February)
Best Days: Plenty of surf Thurs/Fri but windy. Moderate swells over the weekend with the best conditions likely Sunday morning. Strong groundswell expected next Tues-Thurs.
This week (Feb 6-7)
We're expecting plenty of swell about the region throughout the entire forecast period (not normally guaranteed this time of year!). The first new swell is expected to start pushing through later today and should build to a peak on Thursday afternoon with 6ft+ sets about the exposed Margs coast (a little bigger than our swell graph is indicating). This swell was generated generated by a deep low and front positioned well to the SW of the state on Monday and Tuesday, however the high pressure ridge deflected it south-east before it got too close to the coast, so it won’t have any influence on our local weather.
Indeed, this ridge will maintain fresh to strong SE winds about the region during this time frame so you’ll have to sniff around for somewhere offering a little shelter. Wave heights will then slowly ease on Friday with similar winds and weather.
As for Perth and Mandurah, we should see small clean waves about the metro beaches on Thursday and Friday but there won’t be a lot of size on offer. Expect afternoon sea breezes to blow out conditions considerably.
This weekend (Feb 8-9)
A series of secondary fronts are expected to track up towards the coast today and tomorrow (off the backside of the front that generated the swell due this afternoon), and they’ll maintain moderate levels of SW groundswell through the weekend. Again, our wave model seems to be under calling wave heights across the region and it’s likely that we’ll see solid 4-5ft surf at exposed spots, possibly even a few bigger waves every now and then.
The ridge will maintain gusty SE winds on Saturday however it’ll break down on Sunday as a heat trough along the West Coast slides just offshore. This should allow for lighter E’ly winds and much more manageable surface conditions at open breaks.
Wave heights will be only small in Perth and Mandurah but there should be enough energy for the small wave spots (read: swell magnets). Similar winds are expected as of the Margs region - main fresh SE on Saturday with gusty sea breezes, tending lighter E’ly on Sunday as the trough pushes offshore.
Next week (Feb 10 onwards)
We’ve got plenty of surf in store for next week. An extended conveyer belt of intense storm activity is expected to occupy our southern swell window from the weekend thru’ about next Wednesday, in fact we’re looking at four or maybe five frontal systems developing during this time, all of which will generate strong swell for the West Oz coast.
The first swell is due overnight Monday and should produce strong waves in the 6-8ft range at exposed spot throughout Tuesday, however there will be a little more south in the swell direction than usual (this will affect the Perth/Mandurah region too, slightly limiting surf potential here compared to what we’d normally expect).
Strong swells should persist about the coast through Wednesday and Thursday before tailing off around Friday. More on this in Friday’s updated forecast.