Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast (Fri 24th Jan)

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Craig started the topic in Friday, 24 Jan 2014 at 11:03am

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th)

Best Days: Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning in protected spots, Monday morning, 

Recap

A strong and powerful pulse of S'ly groundswell came in right on cue yesterday with south facing beaches building from 3ft at dawn to a strong 4-5ft by late morning ahead of a peak during the middle of the day/early afternoon. Early winds were average and fresh from the E/SE, but these eased into the afternoon and swung more E/NE into the evening.

The source of this swell was an intense mid-latitude low pushing across Tasmania, and it's quick eastward movement after generating the swell has resulted in a considerable drop in size overnight, with south facing beaches easing from 2-3ft this morning under light N'ly winds.

The swell should continue to ease during the day as winds freshen from the NE.

This weekend and early next week (Jan 25 - 28)

Overnight this evening a strong S'ly change is expected to move up the Southern NSW coast as a deepening surface trough moves offshore.

This system should aim a broad fetch of S/SW gales through our swell window (pictured right), kicking up a medium to possibly large pulse of S'ly swell tomorrow. A peak in size is expected during the afternoon probably in the stormy 5-6ft range at south facing locations, with smaller 3-4ft waves at open beaches under fresh S/SE winds.

The trough will move off quickly to the east resulting a drop in size overnight and further through Sunday as the swell swings more S/SE in direction. Heading into Monday and Tuesday the swell should then continue on a steady drop.

Winds on Sunday unfortunately look to linger from the S/SE, but Monday looks fun with a morning W/NW'ly ahead of fresh E/NE sea breezes.

Mid-next week onwards (Jan 29 onwards)

A persistent northerly ridge should generate small to moderate levels of NE windswell for the end of next week and into the following weekend coming in either side of 2ft across north-east facing beaches.

Longer term we're still looking at a tropical low or even cyclone forming in the Coral Sea later next week and retro-grading back towards the Qld and Northern NSW coasts. This may generate some good E/NE swell for the following week, but we'll continue to keep an eye on this.

 

 

ACB__'s picture
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ACB__ commented Friday, 24 Jan 2014 at 3:30pm

I dont want to be that douche that corrects your fine work, but you mean JAN not DEC right?

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Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2014 at 3:31pm

ACB, yep, done this a few times the last updates as I just copy across the template.

Fixed!