Submitted by Craig on Mon, 01/13/2014 - 10:45
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 13th)
Best Days: Tuesday morning, Wednesday afternoon, Thursday morning, Saturday for keen surfers, Sunday morning
The weekend didn't offer much in the way of surf, with the S/SE swell seen later last week easing from 1-2ft across south facing beaches Saturday morning under early light winds.
Sunday saw tiny amounts of swell with a weak S'ly wind that slowly increased during the day.
Today the surf started off tiny and onshore again, but a small increase in S'ly swell is due during the day, likely reaching 2ft across south facing beaches as winds swing more E'ly.
This week and weekend (Jan 14 -19)
This afternoon's increase in S'ly swell should hold into tomorrow morning to 2ft across south facing beaches, generated by a strong mid-latitude low pushing across Tassie.
This system has since generated a fetch of SW gales south-west of New Zealand last night and will continue to do so today (pictured right) while moving slowly east, generating a secondary pulse of S'ly groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning to a really inconsistent but good 2ft to occasionally 3ft across south facing beaches (above model forecasts).
The S'ly swell will ease Thursday afternoon, but also in the mix will be small levels of NE windswell to 2ft at north-east facing beaches. This swell will reach a peak through Saturday to 2-3ft across north-east facing beaches as a persistent but relatively weak northerly ridge sits off our coast.
A S'ly change on Sunday will result in a drop in NE windswell but create fun waves at north-east facing beaches early morning.
Longer term (Jan 20 onwards)
A weak tropical cyclone is forecast to form in the Coral Sea later this week and drift south into the Northern Tasman Sea. This system won't have much of a supporting ridge to the south and hence, the swell from it isn't expected to top 2ft to maybe 3ft at open beaches next Tuesday at this stage.
Beyond this we'll see some new S'ly swell but we'll look at this again on Wednesday.