Submitted by Craig on Mon, 01/06/2014 - 14:35
Victoria Forecast (issued Monday 6th January)
Best Days: Wednesday-Friday east of Melbourne
The Surf Coast offered great waves over the weekend with the arrival of a new W/SW groundswell on Saturday under W/NW winds. The swell was a one day wonder though and dropped back into Sunday to a much smaller 2-3ft. Conditions were good all day though with a fresh NW tending W/NW breeze.
The Mornington Peninsula saw plenty of swell over the weekend but conditions were poor.
Today's stronger pulse of W/SW groundswell has come in under expectations and our model forecasts with it looking too be too west in nature to generate any major size. The Surf Coast saw 3-4ft waves this morning while the Mornington Peninsula was a larger and stormy 8ft+.
The swell has become stronger and larger this afternoon but winds have swing onshore across most spots.
This week (Jan 7-10)
Today's swell was generated by an intense mid-latitude low and should peak this afternoon/evening across the state.
Unfortunately as the swell eases tomorrow winds will remain onshore and from the S/SW tending S/SE. There's a slim chance for morning W'ly winds around Torquay but don't count on it.
The beaches east of Melbourne will then be the places to focus your attention into Wednesday through Friday as winds swing E'ly with small to moderate amounts of swell.
This weekend onwards (Jan 11 - 12)
The next considerable increase in swell is expected on the weekend with a medium sized long-range W/SW groundswell fills in.
This is being generated by a vigorous frontal progression firing up west-southwest of WA and should peak later Saturday before easing slowly Sunday.
Winds unfortunately look average for this swell, swinging onshore Saturday and then remaining so into Sunday.
Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards with a large blocking high moving in resulting in small amounts of swell and winds from the eastern quadrant.