Victoria Forecast (issued Friday 3rd January)
Best Days: Saturday - Tuesday west of Melbourne, Wednesday onwards east of Melbourne
Yesterday started off small and clean around Torquay but average everywhere else. Conditions deteriorated into the afternoon as onshore winds freshened while a late kick in new W/SW swell was seen.
This swell has peaked this morning with good clean 3ft waves around Torquay with bigger sets at 13th Beach, while the Mornington Peninsula was offering solid 5-6ft waves with early light W'ly winds. Conditions will remain good west of Melbourne as a strengthening W'ly wind kicks in but a drop in swell is expected.
This weekend (Jan 4 – 5)
The weekend is looking good across the Surf Coast with the arrival of a strong W/SW groundswell tomorrow under fresh to strong W/NW tending W/SW winds.
This will be generated by a deep and powerful mid-latitude low moving in from the west today (pictured right).
Torquay should see good 3-5ft waves with 4-5ft surf at 13th Beach (undersized early), while the Mornington Peninsula will be a messy and stormy 8ft+.
The swell will drop noticeably into Sunday as the more favourable NW winds kick in during the morning.
Next week (Jan 6 onwards)
A larger W/SW groundswell is expected on Monday as a secondary mid-latitude low pushes in towards us (pictured right) over the weekend and then into us on Monday.
Winds won't be as good for this swell though with a strong SW'ly (W'ly early around Torquay). And then into Tuesday as it ease winds will swing straighter onshore from the S'th, with a possible early W'ly around Torquay again.
Winds may swing around to the East on Wednesday favouring the Mornington Peninsula as the swell continues to back off.
Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards besides a small-moderate long-range W/SW groundswell later in the week with E'ly winds. Check back here on Monday for the latest on this though.