Submitted by Craig on Mon, 12/30/2013 - 11:58
Northern NSW and South East Queensland Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 30th December)
Best Days: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday mornings at south swell magnets, Monday morning
A small S/SE swell came in at 1-2ft across the North Coast Saturday with tiny waves on the Goldy. The swell faded into Sunday leaving tiny waves across both regions under strengthening N/NE winds head of a late S'ly change.
This change was linked to a strong cold front pushing up the Southern NSW coast and has kicked up a good pulse of S'ly swell across the North Coast today, to 3-4ft around Port and Coffs, with 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches towards Yamba and Ballina.
The Goldy is missing most of the swell with swell magnets picking up small 2ft sets.
This week (Dec 30 – Jan 3)
Today's S'ly swell will ease back through tomorrow, but south swell magnets should continue to offer 2ft sets as a long-range S'ly groundswell from just under Tassie fills in. This swell should peak Wednesday morning to 2ft to occasionally 3ft across south swell magnets, with much smaller 1-2ft waves at open beaches and nothing really on the Goldy beaches.
Winds the next two mornings should be variable across the region with moderate E'ly sea breeze tomorrow and fresh NE sea breezes Wednesday.
There's nothing major for the rest of the week besides fading levels of S'ly swell and a tiny NE windswell Friday.
This weekend onwards (Jan 4 onwards)
A mix of building S'ly groundswell and poor NE windswell will be seen Saturday with poor conditions under a strengthening N'ly wind. This will be ahead of a strong S'ly change Sunday, bringing with it a moderate increase in junky S'ly windswell.
Monday will be the first chance to score a decent wave though as winds easing and swing SW with a dropping S/SE swell from 3ft or so across exposed locations.
Longer term we've got some interesting developments on the cards as Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Western Pacific Ocean with a defined signal. This could result in some moderate-large E'ly swell activity late next week/weekend, but we'll keep a close eye on this over the coming days.
Swell looks to have come in under model expectations north of Byron today? Even at swell magnets it looks very small this afternoon. It's not sounding great for tomorrow then? You still expecting the 1.5m @ 8 sec S/SE swell tomorrow? Again noting it's nowhere near 1.7m @ 7 sec now!!!
Also, I'm not really seeing the large E'ly swell for late next week/weekend? Am I missing something? Yeah sure there's something out to the east, but EC has it a mile out near the international date line and so for that system to generate a large swell, it's gonna have to retrograde significantly IMO.
I can see a decent E/SE windswell on the cards, from the large high pushing out into the Tasman, but this wouldn't be associated with your comments on the MJO?
Yeah I wouldn't expect much above 2ft at swell magnets. Period will draw out a bit but no real size to it.
And the term was moderate-large, rather than large straight out.
Looks to be at least a moderate E/SE trade-swell event but potential for something more substantial depending on what happens in the Western Pacific.
Just putting it on the radar as there is potential but this is over 1.5 weeks away.
Perhaps your 1st point Don, is related to Ben's comment on WW3 in the last notes... http://www.swellnet.com/forums/swellnet-forecast-notes/60086