Submitted by Craig on Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:39
Victoria Forecast (issued Monday 23rd December)
Best Days: Christmas Day, Thursday morning, Saturday morning
Saturday was average with onshore winds and a poor mix of swells. Sunday however saw the surface trough responsible for Saturday's poor conditions move south-west resulting in winds swinging offshore, cleaning up fun 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula.
Today the trough has moved back in across us, bringing onshore winds and a weak increase in windswell.
This week (Dec 24 - 27)
Tomorrow is looking average with a small mix of windswell and background groundswell under W/NW winds. Desperate surfers will find a small wave.
Christmas Day is looking much better, with the arrival of a new SW groundswell. This swell has and is still being generated by a nice polar low (pictured right) and should peak Wednesday afternoon. The Surf Coast should peak at a good but inconsistent 2-3ft with 3ft+ sets at 13th Beach, with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds should be favourable as well, swinging from a morning N'ly to the E during the afternoon, favouring exposed locations across the state.
The swell will then ease back into Thursday as morning variable winds give into a fresh S'ly change, so try and surf before lunch.
A new W/SW swell is due Friday from a mid-latitude front pushing in under the country, but winds look poor with this system and fresh from the S/SW.
This weekend (Dec 28 – 29)
Friday's W/SW swell will back off into Saturday with winds expected to tend variable again during the morning creating glassy but likely lumpy conditions. An afternoon S'ly change will then strengthen into Sunday with an average mix of swells making for poor surfing conditions.
There's nothing significant on the cards for early next week with a slow drop in size expected with winds from the eastern quadrant, while a new W/SW swell is on the cards for Wednesday.
Xmas day could be goods, as long as it doesn't get to big for the banks.
Yesterdays little pulse was far from pumping but for a few hours was perhaps the best the beachies have looked for months and some of the banks are starting to settle a bit better which is good because this time of year we really need as many banks as possible to spread out the summer crowd.
Yeah, it's the pick of the period for sure! Unfortunately I'll be a fair way away from the coast, so no surfing for me.