Victoria Forecast (issued Friday 6th December)
Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday morning at exposed spots, Tuesday - Friday west of Melbourne
A fun W/SW swell provided good 2-3ft waves across the Surf Coast yesterday morning under offshore winds, but a strong SW change moved through during the day creating poor conditions and kicking up a late increase in S/SW windswell.
The swell swung more SW and peaked overnight, but this morning good 3-4ft waves were breaking across the Surf Coast, with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds were average everywhere expect around Torquay where an early W'ly provided OK waves. We'll see winds swing back onshore from the W/SW late this morning as the swell drops.
This weekend (Dec 7 - 8)
Today's SW swell will continue to ease into tomorrow and further Sunday as winds improve across the state.
We should see clean fun waves in the 2ft+ range across the Surf Coast Saturday morning, with lumpy and improving surf on the Mornington Peninsula with a variable breeze developing during the morning. Sunday will provide the best waves east of Melbourne with a fresh N'ly early ahead of a swing to the W/NW during the afternoon.
Next week (Dec 9 onwards)
We're finally looking at an active period of waves next week as an amplification of the Long Wave Trough (above right) moves across us and stalls through next week. This will aim a fetch of polar fronts (right) up from the south-west of WA through our swell window through all of next week.
An initial pulse is expected Monday with a mix of larger wind and groundswell Tuesday as one of the fronts pushes right across us. This will be met with fresh to strong W/NW winds leaving the Surf Coast with the best options.
Wednesday is looking the best with a good medium to large sized pulse of W/SW groundswell and morning W/NW winds ahead of a slight shift to the W/SW. Plenty of swell will continue into the end of the week and weekend with winds swinging from a westerly pattern around to the E/NE next Sunday. We'll review this all again on Monday though.