Submitted by thermalben on Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:07
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Wednesday 4th December)
Best Days: Small clean waves in the Margs region Thurs/early Fri. Building swells over the weekend but tricky winds.
Recap: Plenty of bumpy waves across the region on Tuesday with gusty onshore winds and a short range SW swell. Conditions have rapidly imrpoved today with winds swinging SE this morning and then E'ly through the middle of the day, however surf size is easing.
This week (Dec 5-6)
No major change for the rest of the week, as per Monday's forecast. We're looking at slowly easing swells on Thursday and early Friday, ahead of an afternoon kick in new energy throughout Margs preceding a stronger increase this weekend.
Winds should remain offshore for much of Thursday and early Friday, however a developing trough across the West Coast is expected to weaken during this time (and may form a second, weaker trough in the south at the same time) which may bring about variable winds into the afternoon.
However keep in mind that 'variable' doesn't always swing in favour of surfers - we could see onshore winds crop up - so hedge your bets against a morning surf and aim to be pleasantly surprised if the afternoon delivers sonditions wise, with the expected bump in new swell (should see some mid-late afternoon sets in the 4-5ft range).
There shoiuld be some very small clean waves along the Perth metro beaches for both of these days but there probably won't be enough size to warrant a day off work.
This weekend (Dec 7-8)
Good news - we've had a minor upgrade for the weekend's new swells, being generated by a bunch of fronts pushing east of Heard Island at the moment. The latest computer model data has strengthened them slightly, but even better - has actually stalled the primary low for a brief period, immediately S/SW of WA on Thursday.
This should help to kick up a larger swell than was indicated in Monday's outlook. In fact I'm confident that we'll see a little more size than our computer model is predicting - exposed reefs should see occasional 4-5ft waves on Saturday, increasing to 5-6ft+ on Sunday as a secondary system kicks in.
Of course, there's always a caveat to a forecast upgrade - and that's the local winds. With the strengthening of the low and fronts responsible for the weekend's swell, these systems will actually track a little closer to the mainland than previously modeled, which means they'll have a greater bearing on local winds.
As such Sunday's stronger pulse will probably be accompanied by freshening southerlies, which means the Margs region will probably deliver the best waves at sheltered locations (which may consequently be a smidge undersized, because of the extra south in the swell direction). Either way let's see how the models are resolving things on Friday and update then.
As for Perth, the extra south in the swell direction won't be a good thing for this region, so size will probably remain in the 1-2ft+ range at best (on Sunday, a little smaller Saturday). However, there will be waves to ride and for a weekend that aint a bad thing.
Next week (Dec 9 onwards)
Nothing significant at this stage, with no major weather systems expected into next week at this stage. I'll update with more certainty in Friday's forecast but for now you'll be best to take advantage of the weekend's impending swells.