Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 4th December)
Best Days: Thusday, Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday morning
Yesterday started off slow with a small mix of swells, but a strong pulse of E'ly groundswell arrived mid-morning, coming in a little earlier and larger than expected. Open beaches pulsed to a solid 3-5ft, but conditions were average with a fresh to strong NE breeze.
This morning the swell has backed off to a smaller 3ft to occasionally 4ft across open beaches but N'ly winds left a lot of wobble and bump to most beaches. Winds are already starting to freshen from the N/NE and they'll become stronger from the N/NE during the day.
This week (Dec 4 – Dec 6)
Tomorrow looks great with a mix of easing E'ly and NE windswell to 3ft or so under a freshening offshore breeze as a strong cold front pushes across the state. The swell will ease into the afternoon but be super clean so time your run accordingly.
A fresh pulse of S'ly swell is due Friday as a strong change moves up the coast but it will be mainly short-range S'ly swell and with W/SW tending S/SE winds as the swell kicks.
This weekend (Dec 7 onwards)
The weekend is looking great with a couple of strong pulses of S'ly and S/SE groundswell.
The change on Friday will be linked to a strong cold-outbreak in the Southern Tasman Sea, with a broad and deep low pressure system expected to stall in our swell window Friday night and into Saturday.
A fetch of S/SW gales will be generated through our swell window producing a large S'ly groundswell pulse for later Saturday across south facing beaches (the morning will still see medium sized waves across the coast).
A peak in size is expected overnight but Sunday should still provide large waves out of the S/SE all day.
Winds Saturday morning will be great and light offshore from the W/NW, but a shallow E/SE change is expected into the afternoon creating average conditions. Then into Sunday a variable tending fresh NE breeze is expected, favouring south facing beaches.
It should be noted that the major weather forecasting models are still slightly out of alignment regarding the low in the Tasman, so check back here Friday for one last look at the system, but also keep an eye on our surf model forecasts over the coming days.
Into next week the swell will drop rapidly as the low weakens quickly through Saturday and pushes off to the east. NE windswell will then takes its place with no major swell expected for the rest of the week.