Submitted by thermalben on Mon, 12/02/2013 - 18:32
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Monday 2nd December)
Best Days: Rapidly improving on Wed as winds swing offshore and Tues' pulse eases. Small fun and offshore in Margs Thurs and early Friday. Fun waves over the weekend but a little wind affected at times.
Recap: Large waves all weekend but with howling onshore winds throughout the Margs area. Local winds went briefly offshore in Perth and Mandurah early Sunday and Monday mornings, however it was only a short window of semi-favourable conditions before the onshores redeveloped. Wave heights are now easing across the region.
This week (Dec 3-6)
Last Friday, the forecast models suggested that the weekend's strong frontal progression across the southern portion of the state would clear east of our swell window early this week.
However over the weekend they started to develop a secondary front, which is currently approaching from the SW and will kick up a strong renewal of swell for Tuesday. Unfortunately, winds will remain gusty onshore - especially in the lower SW - so conditons will be poor, and there won't be quite enough size for anything fantastic inside the protected points, however there should be some small waves.
Exposed spots will probably push above our model forecast figures of 6ft (ie closer to 6-8ft), due to the active sea state the front is currently working off.
Wednesday looks like a much better proposition as winds quickly veer SE and maybe even E/SE into the middle of the day. We'll see an easing trend throughout Margs (early 4-6ft sets, down to 3-5ft by the afternoon) but there should be some good waves on offer at the various reefs.
Up on the Perth metro beaches we're looking at a windy day of building swell Tuesday with mainly gusty southerlies. Size will ease on Wednesday just like in Margs, and it'll clean up well but you'll be well advised to make the most of the mid-session as we're looking at smaller surf for the rest of the week.
Thursday and in particular early Friday will see wave heights bottom out across the coast ahead of a late arrival of new long range groundswell on Friday afternoon, generated by a reasonable but ultimately insignificant frontal system due to pass just north of Heard Island on Tuesday afternoon. This should see some late sets in the 4ft range across the Mrags coast (and very inconsistent at that).
In Perth, we probably won't see much surf to pad out the rest of the working week however exposed beaches should see fun waves for beginners with generally favourable winds in the mornings.
This weekend (Dec 7-8)
The weekend's looking reasonably fun for the Margs region, although without much size. We'll see a steady supply of small to medium sized swells from a persistent belt of fronts (related to the system generating Friday's late pulse) that'll traverse the waters between Heard Island and the mainland later this week.
Current model guidance has an intensifying phase around Friday and Saturday but I'm a little concerned that these developments will happen too far to the eastern segment of our southern swell window, which will therefore reduce size across the west coast. Still we should see good 3-4ft+ waves all weekend with moderate SE winds in general, under the influence of a large Indian Ocean high and a heat trough along the West Coast. Stay tuned for updates on this throughout the week.
Longer term (Dec 9 onwards)
Nothing significant at this stage, with another major blocking pattern expected across our swell window for the long term.