Submitted by Craig on Mon, 12/02/2013 - 09:55
Victoria Forecast (issued Monday 2nd December)
Best Days: Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning
Onshore winds continued to create average waves Saturday but Sunday finally offered some decent waves across exposed spots with offshore winds and a fun mix of long-range groundswell and closer-range S/SW swell.
Today the coast is near flat again with light offshores and no decent swell.
This week (Dec 2 – Dec 6)
A small long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell will fill in tomorrow and peak during the afternoon but early light winds will give way to a change creating average conditions.
A small W/SW swell for Wednesday has been downgraded and isn't expected to offer much size under increasing W/NW winds.
A strong frontal system moving in from the west during the middle of the week will push across us on Wednesday aiming a fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW winds into the coast (pictured right).
This will kick up another low quality increase in S/SW swell Thursday afternoon that'll then sort itself out more and ease through Friday.
Onshore winds will leave no options Thursday afternoon but early Friday should see W/NW winds on the Surf Coast, with this being the best window to surf.
This weekend (Dec 7 onwards)
Wave heights should continue to ease into the weekend, but steady on Sunday as a new W/SW groundswell arrives. Winds should be favourable for exposed locations each morning, so it may be worth going for a drive.
Craig what about the large area of low swell activity in the southern Indian Ocean
30-40 deg s. 80-90 deg e
Will this not come though our home area of west vic (warrnambool) in the 5-7 day range there is the large high sitting out there same as they do every summer which will negate the low latitudes driven swell influences
Your thoughts appreciated
I'm a little confused.
Are you trying to make sense of the big blocking high currently sitting west of Western Australia, and its effect on surf early next week for Vicco?
If so, we'll actually see that high break down and a new one take its place, but this is OK because it wont block Vicco's swell window (this happens when the high is sitting more in the Bight).
On the contrary we'll see some decent frontal systems pushing up past the south-east corner of the high on a track right towards Vicco generating a good run of medium sized + W/SW groundswell.
Craig look at this image and the Indian ocean MSL analysis, thats what I use for my own weather for a week aheadhttp://www.oceanweather.com/data/Indian-Southern/WAVE000.GIF
We are looking for different things here, I am looking for low to very low swell (fishing) and you are chasing swells for surf, I use your service as it provides a lookahead for swell and I can plan my fishing around that to some extent, exc service and even though you are now charging for the longer term views still good value for money
as a bloke who used to surf and loved chasing swells it is now the opposite we like buggerall swell to get closer to rocks
keep up the good work
Wow! Oceanweather Inc.. haven't visited that site in about ten years. And it hasn't changed at all since then either!
Ah I see, good to see people using the site not just for surfing, and actually looking for no swell!
Well unfortunately there'll be a lot of swell activity from this weekend onwards sorry.
What you're searching for is a big blocking high sitting in the Great Australian Bight or just west of Victoria.
This may develop around the weekend of the 14/15th, but keeping an eye on the trends in the 16 day forecasts will help a lot as well as the WAMs.
I wouldn't have thought basssnake would have any room left in his freezer for anymore fish with all the flat ocean days of late.
Nice little swell trying its best today, but this wind even as light as its is, is sadly making a mess of things.