Submitted by mowgli on Thu, 03/21/2019 - 13:04
More of a “be a-tiny-bit-aware" type thing...
Several of the long range models are showing TC Trevor swinging back around in our general direction mid-late next week.
It should be pointed out that the system marker indicated by my red arrow (i.e. the little green circle) is the projected location Tuesday 26 March, and there is a tonne of uncertainty associated with projecting such a system's path anything more than ~24 hrs in advance (but especially a week in advance!). Not to mention by that point it’ll almost certainly be a storm, not a TC.
This isn't unsual behaviour for TC’s that cross from the Coral Sea into the Gulf (i.e. to flick back across central QLD), which is what we saw with TC Oma. If you recall, the precursor to TC Oma started in the Coral Sea (it was sitting off the coast of Townsville and was part of the broader system that dumped all that rain on them), it then went north and crossed FNQ moving into the Gulf. It then moved back across to the Coral Sea, then going full TC while parked in the area around Fiji/Vanuatu (hence why the Fiji BOM got the naming rights), before obviously marching slowly SSW across the Coral Sea in our direction.
So these things can actually have a reasonably long shelf life.
Just thought I'd share given the article re. Bugs and the superbank.
(sorry for link, forgotten already how to embed an image!)