Submitted by Craig on Fri, 11/29/2013 - 08:14
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th November)
Best Days: Early Saturday in protected spots, Sunday morning, early Monday, Wednesday for keen surfers, Thursday once the change hits
Wednesday's pumping SE groundswell eased back to a smaller and less consistent 3ft+ across most spots yesterday morning under light NW winds. A N/NE sea breeze started to develop during the morning though and freshened into the afternoon whipping up a small NE windswell.
Overnight a strong S'ly change whipped through and this morning we we're in between swells with a junky 1-2ft wave across most beaches.
We should see the swell build from the S'th this afternoon linked to today's fresh to strong S'ly winds, with plenty of S'ly swell on the cards for the weekend.
This weekend (Nov 30 – Dec 1)
An amplification of the Long Wave Trough is currently moving across the entrance to the Southern Tasman Sea (pictured top right), and with it we will see a series of strong cold fronts directed up through our swell window.
An initial front today will produce a medium sized short-range S'ly swell for tomorrow, while a secondary front pushing up past Tassie's East Coast this afternoon and evening (pictured bottom right) should generate a slightly stronger pulse for Sunday morning.
A third and final increase in S'ly groundswell is due to peak midday Monday to 2-3ft or so generated by a stronger but less favourably aligned polar front tomorrow.
Conditions tomorrow will be average with a less than ideal S/SW tending SE breeze, while Sunday looks much better with early light SW winds ahead of E/NE sea breezes.
Next week (Dec 2 onwards)
Monday's S'ly swell will ease through Tuesday as new levels of NE windswell become more dominant.
A strong and building northerly ridge down the Tasman Sea will see medium levels of NE windswell forming into Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday but with the less than favourable N-NE winds.
An offshore change is due during the day Thursday and this will provide the best waves as the NE swell drops.
Beyond this, a spike in S'ly swell is likely Friday but we'll review this next week.