Submitted by thermalben on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 17:06
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Monday 25th November)
Best Days: Tues/Wed at exposed locations as winds swing to the SE and then E. Big swell due on Saturday but with average winds.
Recap: A tragic week for West Oz and indeed all Australian surfers, with Chris Boyd being fatally attacked at Lefthanders just south of Gracetown. As such it's hard to fathom surfing in this neck of the woods in the short term. RIP.
Just for the record, Saturday morning offered a small clean swell in the Margs region with light offshore winds ahead of a freshening onshore after lunch. Sunday was blown out with a small easing swell and a gusty onshore wind.
A new swell has began to build across the coast today but gusty S/SE winds are tearing it apart and there's not quite enough size for protected locations (although the Yalls cam looks quite workable).
As for the Perth metro beaches, surf size has remained very small and a similar wind regime as the lower SW padded out each day.
This week (Nov 26-29)
The overal trend is for a slow easing through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a kick in new swell on Friday afternoon. Size wise, we're probably looking at another 4ft or so on Tuesday morning (in the Margs region) but winds will generally be gusty from the S/SE, which will limit opportunities at most locations. Wednesday looks like a better option as winds swing around to the east, but wave heights will be a little smaller and only suitable for the small wave reefs.
As for Thursday and Friday, winds are due to swing NW as a vigorous front approaches the coast, so conditions will deteriorate very rapidly. Friday in particular will be blown out as the front/low passes to the south of the state. There'll be some small late wind waves on the Perth metro beaches on Friday afternoon but don't expect any quality here.
This weekend (Nov 30 / Dec 1)
OK, we've got one major swell event due within the next two weeks and Saturday's where it's going to all happen. This swell will be generated by a deep cut off low that's expected to develop east of Heard Island during the middle of the week, pushing through our immediate swell window with strength before passing just south of the state prior to the weekend.
On Saturday, winds should rapidly abate in the wake of Friday's front, but they'll still be onshore down south so don't expect a lot of quality on offer. You can try the protected bays and points but at this stage there'll probably still be some west in the wind direction which may reduce options. Size wise, we're looking at a solid 10ft+ at exposed locations in the Margs region at some point on Saturday, with 3-4ft surf along the Perth metro beaches. Winds will be lighter north of Margs so conditions should be much more manageable.
As for Sunday, we're looking at rapidly improving surface conditions and light SE winds as a high ridges in from the west. Should be some good surf about most locations - including the Perth and Mandurah coasts - but expect a steady easing trend all day.
Longer term (Dec 2 onwards)
Nothing showing up on the radar for next week with yet another strong blocking patern developing across our primary swell windows. Let's have a close look in Wednesday's update.