Submitted by thermalben on Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:23
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Friday 22nd November)
Best Days: Chance for a brief window early Saturday. Otherwise, Monday.
Recap: Tiny waves and generally gusty offshore winds all week. A new long range groundswell is starting to appear on the Margs coast but set waves are very inconsistent. The Margs surfcam has picked up a few sets in the 3ft+ range as of 10:30am local time (see image below) but they are far and few between.
This weekend (Nov 23-24)
Nothing great is expected this weekend in the Margs region. Winds are expected to be a little funky as a broad surface trough near the coast moves eastwards, bringing mainly onshore winds to the coast. There's a chance for a brief window of offshore winds early Saturday but other than that there's nothing worth working around (size wise, should be somewhere within the computer model expectations, possibly a few bigger 3-4ft sets at the swell magnets if you're lucky).
As for the Perth metro beaches, we'll similarly unfavourbale winds although with a little less strength than down south. There won't be much size though, just a foot or so at exposed locations, so don't get your hopes up for anything worthwhile.
Next week (Nov 25-29)
A deepening low midway between Western Australia and Heard Island has been developing quite nicely over the last few days, however its early stages were aimed mainly towards the Indonesian region. As the low moves slowly westward over the weekend it'll start to push into WA's swell window, which is expected to generate a reasonably solid swell increase for Monday.
At this stage it seems that the models are undercalling wave heights due to the poor alignment of the low - they're estimating a straight 4ft from this source on Monday whereas I think we'll probably see somewhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft at exposed spots in and around the Margs region.
Conditions won't be great due to a gusty S/SE airstream (thanksd to the interaction between a developing trough along the West Coast and an Indian Ocean high pressure system) but this is probably the biggest day on offer within the next week or so, and will be your best chance at a reasonable wave, so try some of the semi-sheltered locations for the best surf. This swell will also create small waves up in Perth and Mandurah (around 2ft) but again it'll be windy from the S/SE here as well.
Other than Monday, the rest of next week looks very uninspiring due to yet another blocking pattern developing across our primary swell windows. We've got a very small long range swell due around Wednesday (being generated in the far reaches of the western Indian Ocean at the moment) but this won't provide much more than two or three feet across exposed locations in the lower SW. Otherwise, expect very small surf with typical summer weather patterns.
Long term (Nov 30 onwards)
Next weekend is looking very promising. A strong series of low pressure systems are expected to develop around Heard Island about Tuesday next week before powering towardz the mainland. As they'll each be working on the pre-existing sea state generated by the previous weather system, we can expect a considerable ramping up of wave heights compared to what we'd normally see form a solitary weather system.
As such, this should generate a very large swell event for next weekend - current model data has about 10ft for the Margs region on Saturday Nov 30th however if the model pans out similar to current projects I wouldn't be surprised if it's more in the 12ft to maybe even 15ft range. Either way, it looks like there could be a good reason to persist through yet another spell of tiny surf next week. More on this in Monday's update.