Submitted by Craig on Wed, 11/20/2013 - 14:11
Victoria Forecast (issued Wednesday 20th November)
Best Days: Friday morning, Saturday morning
Morning offshores created fun waves across both coasts yesterday morning ahead of a strong S/SW change around lunch time. This wrote off the surf for the afternoon and poor conditions have persisted into today with a small to tiny amount of swell.
This week (Nov 20-22)
Tomorrow morning will be terrible weather and swell wise with a stormy E/SE windswell generated by a fetch of strong to gale-force winds developing through Bass Straight the next 24 hours (pictured right).
This will be related to a surface low drifting west across us, but as we head into the end of the day the low will continue west resulting in winds relaxing. Come Friday winds will actually swing offshore from the N/NW creating clean peaky waves with a fun mix of easing SE windswell and new SW swell. This will be the day to surf so make the most of it!
This weekend (Nov 23-24)
The weekend won't offer much in the way of waves with a small mix of SW and S/SW swells under favourable NW winds Saturday morning and W/NW winds Sunday morning.
Longer Term (Nov 25 onwards)
Unfortunately there's nothing major on the cards for the longer term outlook still with another surface trough expected to develop and stall in the Southern Tasman Sea next week. This will kick up weak levels of E/SE windswell again but we'll review all of this again on Friday.
Well how's that, contrary to yesterday morning's forecasts the low has moved quicker to the south-west and this has resulted in a much smaller amount of SE swell and also an early weakening and swing in wind direction at selected spots as the axis of the low moved further West.
The plus side of the new forecasting system which updates 4x a day is that the forecast has accordingly adjusted the size and winds for today down from a stormy 4ft with strong E/SE winds back to 2-3ft or so with variable winds.