Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 18th November)
Best Days: Thursday morning
No surf over the weekend and similar conditions have been seen this morning.
This week (Nov 18-22)
Plenty of fun waves are due over this week generated by a couple of sources. A short-range NE windswell is expected tomorrow from a strengthening northerly ridge down the coast, but this will be replaced by a slightly stronger E/NE swell Wednesday.
This E/NE swell will be created on the bottom flank of a surface trough that's currently generating large swells across the Sydney region. Size off this system should come in at a good 2ft before fading slowly through Thursday.
Conditions on Wednesday will unfortunately be poor with a S/SE breeze in the wake of a change overnight Tuesday. Thursday looks better with a morning SW'ly.
This weekend (Nov 23-24)
The weekend will see much more size and action as another surface trough moving in from the west deepens once it enters the Southern Tasman Sea. This will see a fetch of strong to gale-force E/SE winds aimed on the edge of our swell window (pictured right), kicking up medium to large levels of E/NE swell but with onshore winds.
The system looks to hang around into early next week and this will keep the swell kicking but also keep poor winds and weather hitting the coast.
Longer Term (Nov 25 onwards)
The longer term revolves around when the trough sitting to our east moves away from the coast, swinging winds offshore. Check back Wednesday and keep an eye on the model updates for an idea on this.