Submitted by Craig on Mon, 11/18/2013 - 07:58
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 18th November)
Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning
Saturday didn't offer much in the way of surf with a weak junky 1-2ft of SE windswell and average winds.
A stronger increase in E/SE swell was seen yesterday though as a surface trough deepened off our coast producing 3-4ft waves across open beaches. S'ly winds favoured protected locations all day as the swell ebbed and pulsed. Today the swell has kicked further as a result of the trough reaching a peak in intensity early this morning (pictured right). Open beaches were in the 5-6ft range but poor with a fresh to strong S'ly wind.
We should see the swell peaking during the middle of the day and then easing late as winds ease due to the trough starting to drift south.
This week (Nov 18-22)
Tomorrow morning will provide great waves across the coast and the most size for the coming period as the surface trough continues drifting south and winds swing offshore from the SW. This should see clean 3-4ft waves across most locations with the E/SE swell expected to ease further during the day due to the trough moving our of our swell window.
For the rest of the week we should see wave heights holding around 2-3ft out of the east as a new E'ly swell takes the place of the fading E/SE swell.
This E'ly swell will be generated by a surface trough drifting into the Tasman Sea from the Qld coast, with a couple of embedded lows projecting fetches of E/NE winds towards us. A low point in size is actually expected Thursday with surf to 2ft+ or so. Winds will be a bit dicey as well and probably variable early, while Friday should see early N'ly winds freshening from the NE during the day.
This weekend (Nov 23-24)
Saturday is looking real fun with a good pulse of E/NE swell expected. This will be produced by another trough moving in from the west and deepening as it approaches the coast. This should see an infeed of E/NE winds aimed towards us, Friday afternoon and evening kicking up 3ft of E/NE swell, and winds should swing offshore as the trough moves east. We'll confirm this on Wednesday though.
Longer Term (Nov 25 onwards)
We'll continue to see plenty of swell into next week as the surface trough responsible for Saturday's E/NE swell generates E/SE swell from its southern flank. Check back Wednesday for the latest on all of this though.