Submitted by thermalben on Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:03
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Friday 15th November)
Best Days: Saturday at exposed spots down south, with a small new swell and light offshore winds.
Recap: Tuesday's solid swell has eased slowly throughout the second half of the week, with small surf and gusty winds padding out much of Thursday and Friday. Winds were generally offshore however Perth did experience a brief SW sea breeze on Thursday afternoon, before reverting back to a late land breeze (t'was a local effect as Margs and Mandurah remained offshore the entire day).
This weekend (Nov 16-17)
No change to the forecast issued on Wednesday. A small long period groundswell should produce fun waves in the 3ft+ range at exposed locations around Margaret River on Saturday, however it will be very inconsistent at times so expect long breaks for the bigger waves. Winds will be easterly early, before trending to the south-east during the day, so aim for an early session.
A further kick in size is expected on Sunday afternoon but this will coincide with a strengthening of S/SE winds about the coastal fringe as a new heat trough (developing off the West Coast at the moment) ridges up against a broad high pressure system to the south-west. So, make the most of Saturday as Sunday could be a write-off thanks to the winds. Good if you're a kiteboarder or windsurfer though.
Up along the Perth metro beaches, we're expecting a variable wind regime this weekend (which may even trend northerly at times on Saturday as the heat trough redevelops) however surf size will be very small. A minor increase in wave heights is due Sunday but we're at risk of strengthening S'ly winds at this time, so keep your expectations low.
Next week (Nov 18-22)
Strong high pressure across WA's mid range swell window over the weekend will confine major swell generating activity to our far swell window for much of next week. Sunday's swell is expected to ease steadily from Monday onwards, with the following four days expected to produce small conditions right through until the following weekend when a series of small long range groundswells will make landfall (courtesy of the storm activity stalled in the far western Indian Ocean).
In general, there's nothing really worth working around next week - Monday will see the most size but it'll still be quite windy from the south-east, thanks to a large high pressure system to the south-west of the state.
Long term (Nov 23 onwards)
Our model forecast has a small increase due Saturday and Sunday (2-3ft+) ahead of a more prominent increase around Monday (3-5ft) - and this is expected to be the start of a more active swell phase for Western Australia throughout the following week as the blocking ridge starts to break down, allowing the storm track to push closer to the mainland.
Current model guidance has a stronger increase again for Tuesday 26th above 6ft+ in Margs however as the storm tracks nudges the mainland, winds are much more likely to swing to the west which may completely write off local conditions - at least in the lower south west of the state anyway. So, the promise of a swell increase during this time may be marred by poor local conditions.
Either way it's nice to have an active period in the forecast ahead rather than tracking these small, inconsistent long range groundswells - I'll update the outlook in more detail on Monday.