Submitted by thermalben on Wed, 11/13/2013 - 18:10
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Wednesday 13th November)
Best Days: Saturday at exposed spots down south, with a small new swell and light offshore winds.
Recap: Plenty of size on Tuesday at exposed spots around Margs with solid 6ft sets across the reefs, however gusty S'ly winds rendered all but the protected locations too bumpy to ride. Size has eased today and gusty winds have maintained their strength. Surf size has remained small in Perth.
This week (Nov 14-15)
Not much on offer for the rest of the week. A stubborn Indian Ocean High is ridging up against a broad heat trough near the West Coast, and this will maintain gusty SE winds through Thursday, along with an easing swell trend. Winds will abate in strength into Friday but there won't be much surf leftover away from the exposed beaches down south.
The leading edge of a small long range groundswell is due to arrive on Friday afternoon but I'm not confident we'll see any noticeable increase before the end of the day (a peak in size is expected from this source on Saturday).
In Perth, wave heights will remain very small and with similar winds on offer it's hard to get excited about surf prospects for the next few days.
This weekend (Nov 16-17)
A small long period groundswell should produce fun waves in the 3ft+ range at exposed locations around Margaret River on Saturday. A further kick in size is expected on Sunday afternoon but this will coincide with a strengthening of S/SE winds about the coastal fringe as a new heat trough (developing off the West Coast Fri/Sat) ridges up against a broad high pressure system to the south-west.
So, make the most of Saturday as Sunday could be a write-off thanks to the winds. Good if you're a kiteboarder or windsurfer though.
Up along the Perth metro beaches, we're expecting a variable wind regime this weekend (which may even trend northerly at times on Saturday as the heat trough redevelops) however surf size will be very small. A minor increase in wave heights is due Sunday but we're at risk of strengthening S'ly winds at this time, so keep your expectations low.
Next week (Nov 18 onwards)
Strong high pressure across WA's mid range swell window over the weekend will confine major swell generating activity to our far swell window for much of next week. Sunday's swell is expected to ease steadily from Monday onwards, with at least another four or five days of small conditions expected right up until the following weekend when a series of small to medium sized swells may make landfall (courtesy of the storm activity stalled in the far western Indian Ocean).
Our model forecast has a small increase due Saturday and Sunday ahead of a more prominent increase around Monday - and this could be the start of a more active swell phase for Western Australia throughout the following week as the blocking ridge starts to break down, allowing the storm track to push closer to the mainland. More on this in Friday's update.