Submitted by thermalben on Mon, 11/11/2013 - 18:01
Western Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson
(issued Monday 11th November)
Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday
Tiny waves over the weekend with gusty offshore winds. Almost flat on all coasts!
This week (Nov 11-15)
As discussed last week we've got a strong groundswell moving into the region and it's already starting to show on the surfcams (see screengrabs below). Margs has set waves pushing 4-5ft right now and it's expected to reach a peak on Tuesday in the 6-8ft range - note: this is bigger than our forecast graph is indicating, because I don't think the models accurately captured the low responsible for the swell.
Unfortunately, fresh S/SE winds will keep conditions below average at the exposed reefs in the Margs region but the protected points will have smaller, cleaner waves. The Perth metro beachies should also pick up a few stray 2ft sets at times.
Wave heights will then ease steadily from Wednesday onwards with gusty S/SE winds tending SE at strength throughout the period as an Indian Ocean high ridges in against a near-stationary heat trough along the West Coast. This trough may move offshore later in the week, allowing winds speeds to relax and swing more to the E/SE. Stay tuned for more on that in Wednesday's update.
But essentially Thursday and Friday are looking at small clean waves about exposed coasts in the lower south-west, and very little surf for the Perth metro beaches.
Longer term (Nov 16 onwards)
This dominant Indian Ocean high pressure system is also deflecting major swell generating system away from our far and medium swell windows, meaning that swell prospects will remain generally small into the weekend and for the first half of next week.
We'll see a small new long range groundswell move into WA coasts on Friday afternoon, reaching a peak on Saturday morning, but size will be limited to about 4ft at exposed spots down south. This swell will have been generated by another storm in the far western Indian ocean south of Madagascar right now.
Looking really far out, and several small to possibly medium sized long range groundswells are due to arrive between about next Thursday (21st) and Saturday (23rd). One particularly deep low modeled to strengthen well to the south-west of Heard Island (next weekend) looks very good on the long range charts right now, however it's focused up towards Indonesia and may not quite benefit Western Australia - but we'll see if this evolves in our favour over the coming days. Either way there's plenty on the charts to keep us all occupied.