Submitted by Craig on Mon, 11/11/2013 - 11:49
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th November)
Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, early Friday
The NE windswell Saturday morning came in under Friday's expectations with the infeed of NE winds seemingly not reaching the forecast strength. Instead small 2ft waves were seen across north-east facing beaches as winds shifted from the N'th around to the SE.
Sunday was a write off with a junky S/SE swell and fresh onshore winds. Today is similar although a larger E/SE swell is building across the region owing to a deepening surface trough and low directly off the coast. This morning's onshore winds should ease late and swing S'ly opening up some fun options across protected locations.
This week (Nov 11-15)
Tomorrow morning will be the pick of the week as the trough/low generating the large E/SE moves further south (shown right) resulting in winds swinging offshore from the W/SW and variable into the afternoon.
Open beaches should be picking up solid waves at dawn out of the SE from a fetch of E'ly gales on the southern flank of the low. As the system continues drifting south though the swell will continue to ease and swing more S/SE in direction.
By Wednesday the S/SE swell is expected to be replaced by new levels of NE swell generated by an infeed of NE winds into the eastern flank of the low. Winds should be generally good again Wednesday morning and light offshore ahead of light NE sea breezes.
Small waves will pad out the rest of the week from the E/NE and E/SE with light offshore winds Thursday and early Friday ahead of a SE change.
This weekend and beyond (Nov 16 onwards)
There's nothing too major on the cards for this weekend but the outlook for next week is promising with a couple of similar developments to this week on the cards. We may see an inland surface trough deepening once it moves offshore, but we'll look over this again on Wednesday.
Here's a good satellite pass of the low sitting off the Sydney coast yesterday.
You can see the fetch of 30-35kt E/SE winds aimed into the coast, similar to the forecast winds shown in the chart I created above yesterday.
The low has since shifted south and the surf is pretty bloody good across the Southern NSW coast this morning, should straighten out a bit further during the morning as well!