Submitted by Craig on Fri, 11/08/2013 - 09:57
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th November)
Best Days: Saturday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning
The SE swell continued to ease yesterday from a small 2ft across most open beaches under light morning winds. Fresh NE sea breezes developed during the day as the swell continue to fade while also kicking up a weak NE windswell.
Today the NE swell is the more dominant in the water coming in at 1-2ft at north-east facing beaches and we should see it building a touch further this afternoon as fresh NE winds kick up again.
This weekend (Nov 9-10)
Saturday morning will be the pick of the weekend with a fun NE windswell to 3ft across north-east facing beaches as winds swing offshore. Mid-late morning will be the best of it as W/NW tending SW winds iron out some lump and bump ahead of a fresh SE change.
Sunday will be a write off with strengthening onshore SE winds and a building SE windswell.
Next week (Nov 11-13)
We've got quite a dynamic and exciting period ahead.
The surface trough responsible for tomorrow afternoon's change will deepen and form a small low pressure centre during Monday right off our coast (pictured top right).
This will generate a building E/SE swell across the region that is expected to reach the medium-large range Monday evening and peak early Tuesday out of the SE. Winds will swing offshore as the low drifts south creating excellent conditions Tuesday morning with an early W/SW'ly. Conditions shouldn't deteriorate too much into the afternoon with only a light sea breeze expected.
The SE swell will ease through Wednesday but fun levels of NE windswell will take its place feeding in from the northern flank of the low (pictured bottom right). Winds will again be offshore Wednesday morning creating great waves across open beaches!
Longer Term (Nov 14 onwards)
A drop in E/NE swell is expected into the end of the week as the low weakens and starts drifting south with nothing too major expected into next weekend. In saying this fun waves are expected across open beaches right into the end of the week. Therefore there'll be plenty of opportunity to surf over the coming week.
LOVE these synoptic patterns. Really complex to forecast as well - will be interesting to see how the models handle the surf size and swings in wind direction.
Be good just to surf swells with more east in them than dead south, cant wait!