Victoria Forecast (issued Friday 8th November)
Best Days: Monday morning east of Melbourne, Thursday morning west of Melbourne
A period of light W'ly winds provided fun waves across the Surf Coast and protected locations east of Melbourne yesterday before a strong onshore kicked in. Today a good SW swell has filled in and winds have backed off creating OK surf west of Melbourne, while most locations to the east are still fairly average. The lighter winds are due to another small trough moving across the state and we'll see stronger onshore winds developing during the day.
This weekend (Nov 9-10)
There'll be plenty of waves on offer this weekend but conditions will be terrible everywhere with a fresh S/SW wind tomorrow and S/SE winds Sunday. There's an outside chance for a early W'ly wind around Torquay at dawn tomorrow but don't plan your day around it.
Next week (Nov 11-13)
Poor conditions will continue into next week as the eastern edge of a high pressure system stalling in the Bight sits over us. A good S/SW swell is due later Sunday ahead of a peak Monday morning generated by polar frontal activity (pictured right) but fresh E/SE winds will leave only the protected beaches east of Melbourne with decent waves.
These E/SE winds will kick up medium levels of SE windswell across the Surf Coast which will become the more dominant energy from Monday afternoon through Tuesday before easing Wednesday.
Longer Term (Nov 14 onwards)
The weather pattern will start to change into Thursday as the high pressure ridge breaks down and a front starts moving in from the west through the Bight. This should see winds swinging more W'ly right in time for a new long-range W/SW groundswell to arrive. This swell will be generated in our far swell window (pictured above right) resulting in a small to medium sized and very inconsistent W/SW swell. Beyond this medium levels of W/SW swell are due but we'll look at this again on Monday.