Submitted by thermalben on Mon, 11/04/2013 - 17:55
Western Australia Surf Forecast (Mon 4th Nov)
Forecast prepared by Ben Matson
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
Plenty of great waves over the weekend with gusty SE winds on Saturday swinging E/SE on Sunday, and sea breezes holding off until relatively late in the afternoon. Another good day of waves again this morning although gusty southerly winds are developing across the lower SW as heat trough near the coast retreats inland.
Looks like the solid long range groundswell expected to arrive this afternoon (as per Friday's notes) is running a little late. Surfcam observations have shown some solid waves at Margs but there's a long break between 'em. Unfortunately the WA buoys area not configured to accurately detect long period groundswells (due to the period settings displayed) so we really won't know until later this evening whether this expected swell is on target or not. Additionally, it's quite likely that the swell will peak overnight and begin an easing trend tomorrow.
This week (Nov 4-8)
With an expected overnight peak in swell, Tuesday will herald an easing trend all day. Computer models have pulled back the forecast onshore wind strength since Friday's outlook, but it'll still be a little average in the lower SW so keep a lid on expectations.
In Perth, we'll see small waves all day but mainly fresh southerly winds will render most breaks quite average. Keep an eye out for a brief period of light winds early morning though.
A new S/SW groundswell originating from another front trailing the system responsible for today's swell is due to arrive on Wednesday, probably starting to show mid-late morning and reaching a peak in the late afternoon. This swell direction will mainly favour the South Coast, and south facing breaks in the Margs-Yall region with late sets in the 6ft to possibly 8ft range - so keep this in mind when choosing your destination. Conditions will improve quite a bit from Tuesday though with winds veering back to the E/SE ahead of a sea breeze.
I wouldn't expect to see much size from this swell in Perth due to the southerly component in the swell direction, however there should be some residual energy between 1ft and maybe 2ft all day. Good conditions are expected here as well.
From here on it's an easing swell trend through Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, thanks to a blocking high that's developing across WA's near swell window.
Longer Term (Nov 9 onwards)
The aforementioned blocking pattern will hold back all potential swell generating systems in our far swell window for a couple of days, meaning we'll see no new energy on the WA coast until about next Monday when a small long range swell is due to arrive, originating from a slow moving solitary low pressure system well to the west of Heard Island this week. More on this in Wednesday's update.