Southern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This week (Nov 4-8)
Today's swell should ease off through tomorrow as winds improve with small fun beachies expected across the Arm.
Wednesday will see a new long-range W/SW groundswell filling in, but it will be very inconsistent due to the large distance between the source of the swell and our coasts. Clifton should peak at 2-3ft during the afternoon and winds will be offshore from the N/NW all day creating great conditions.
Thursday will be a write off as a surface trough moves across us bringing fresh S'ly winds. The trough will then linger over us through the weekend keeping light to moderate onshore winds blowing into the South Arm.
A stronger SW groundswell will arrive through this period (generated by the polar front pictured right), peaking later Thursday afternoon and Friday morning to 3ft+ but the onshore winds will leave no real options.
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
Fun pulses of SW swell are expected through the weekend and early next week, but winds will remain average with the surface trough to our east. We'll update this again on Wednesday though.