Northern NSW and South East Queensland Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This week (Nov 4-8)
A building S'ly swell trend is being seen across the region today linked to a strong cold outbreak in the Southern Tasman Sea last night. Conditions are poor though with associated S'ly winds leaving protected locations with the cleanest but smallest waves.
Today's initial pulse of S'ly swell will be replaced by a secondary stronger pulse tomorrow from a broad fetch of S'ly winds off the NSW coast. This should peak through the middle of the day to 6ft+ across south swell magnets on the North Coast and 4-6ft on the Tweed Coast into the afternoon, while the Goldy beaches aren't expected to top 2ft.
SW winds will favour protected bays and points tomorrow morning, while Wednesday looks like the pick with a third pulse of S/SE groundswell due to peak early morning under more favourable W/SW winds. This groundswell will be generated by a fetch of S'ly gales wrapping around the core of the Tasman Low projecting northwards up through the Tasman Sea today and tomorrow (pictured right).
The North Coast should peak in size around 6ft+ at south facing beaches with bigger bombs likely at swell magnets, while the Tweed should also see waves to 6ft, with the Gold Coast beaches offering good 3ft sets. A drop in size will be seen into the afternoon and further through Thursday out of the SE under light W/NW winds, creating excellent conditions.
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
Small levels of NE windswell are expected through the weekend and into early next week, feeding into a deepening surface trough off the Southern NSW coast. We may also see small levels of S/SE swell spreading up into the Mid-North Coast off the southern flank of the trough but we'll look into this further on Wednesday.
Very exciting prospects!! To speculate... Craig, what degree of confidence do you have that we will have SW winds/light winds in North NSW around the Clarence tomorrow at 10:00am?
Early morning I'd be pretty confident, but by 10am they'll probably start tending more S'ly and around to the S/SE just before lunch. So earlier the better.
No worries cheers Craig