Submitted by thermalben on Fri, 11/01/2013 - 19:27
Western Australia Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This weekend (Nov 2-3)
We're on the backside of the current swell event and a further easing trend is expected into Saturday. Current wind obs from the Margaret River region are showing gusty southerlies, and they're expected to continue overnight before veering E/SE as a heat trough along the West Coast fluctuates in its size, strength and position.
On the metro beaches there won't be much size (just a weak foot or two) but in the lower south west we should see good surf holding in the 4-5ft range across the exposed reefs, easing throughout the day. It'll probably become less consistent as well.
On Sunday we'll see a continuation of this E/SE airstream, and a new pulse of SW groundswell should be in the water during the morning, generated by a reasonably strong front slipping south of the state today. This should kick up the Margs region to 5-6ft+ at times, whilst the Perth metro beaches will probably remain small around 1-2ft+.
Next week (Nov 4-8)
A much more vigorous low is tracking near Heard Island at the moment, and it's generating a strong, long period swell that will push through for Monday, ahead of a secondary pulse from the same system early Wednesday. Monday's swell may not quite be in the water at first light but should start to show by mid-late morning, ahead of a peak late afternoon in the 8ft+ range around Margs, and up to 2-3ft on the Perth metro beaches by dark (smaller surf before lunch here as well).
However winds are looking dicey as the West Coast heat trough is modelled to slide to the east, which will bring about a gusty SW change to most locations. Bear this in mind as it'll have a drastic effect on wave quality.
Gusty southerly winds will then ease through Tuesday as the swell abates, ahead of a more typical summer SE pattern to accompany Wednesday's secondary pulse (back up in the 6-8ft+ range down south, and 2ft+ on the Perth metro beaches)
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
Looks like we'll see an easing through through Thursday and Friday as a blocking pattern take hold across WA's immediate swell window. A series of smaller weather systems slightly further west inside our swell window are on target to kick up a moderate round of swell for next weekend, but we'll look at that in more detail on Monday.