Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This weekend (Nov 2-3)
Aim to do something else other than surfing this weekend, as there'll be none.
Next week (Nov 4-8)
A dynamic weather pattern will develop later in the weekend and persist through early next week. This will be in the form of a strong cold outbreak moving into the Tasman Sea and taking the form of a Tasman Low stalling to our east-northeast.
As the system moves offshore (pictured right), we should see a late spike in S'ly swell Sunday evening, with a drop Monday from 3-4ft at open beaches and 6ft at south swell magnets. Winds won't be the best, blowing fresh from the S/SW most of the day.
Into Tuesday most of the action will be too far north of us, with the swell expected to drop away further from Monday morning's size. Winds should be slightly better and from the SW early before shifting SE into the afternoon.
Wednesday will be the pick as one small pulse of SE swell arrives from the bottom flank of the low. This should provide 2-3ft waves at open beaches, but get in early as NW winds will freshen from the NE during the day.
The rest of the week will be average, with a weak NE windswell Thursday expected to be replaced by a S/SE windswell Friday.
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
No major swells are on the cards for next weekend or beyond at this stage, but we'll review this next update.