Submitted by Craig on Fri, 11/01/2013 - 13:56
Southern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This weekend (Nov 2-3)
Beginners will make the most of small waves tomorrow, while a strong cold front pushing across us Sunday will kick up some new S/SW windswell. The surf will be a write off though with associated fresh S/SW winds.
Next week (Nov 4-8)
A Tasman Low forming to our east will maintain a junky S'ly windswell Monday with onshore winds, while Tuesday should see an improvement in conditions as the system moves away to the north-east. The swell will be small and around 2ft though.
The second half of the week is looking much better as a mix of long-range and shorter-range W/SW groundswells fill in (the source of this is picture right). Wednesday looks to offer the most size to a very inconsistent 2-3ft during the afternoon, while Thursday will probably ease from a similar height.
You'll have to work around a touch of east in the wind Wednesday so those more exposed breaks will be the go, while Clifton will be best Thursday morning before a S/SW change sweeps through.
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
A blocking high will keep South Australia and Victoria quiet into next weekend, but we may see polar frontal activity skirting around the bottom of the high, keeping our region active. We'll review this next update.