Submitted by Craig on Fri, 11/01/2013 - 13:15
Northern NSW and South East Queensland Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This weekend (Nov 2-3)
A small mix of S'ly and SE swells will kick off the weekend, but you'll have to hit up those protected northern corners as light morning NW winds freshen from the N/NE during the day. Sunday will be poor with a tiny and weak NE windswell developing into the afternoon as winds again freshen from the north.
Next week (Nov 4-8)
The outlook for next week is much more interesting owing to a strong cold out-break (pictured right) moving into the Southern Tasman Sea Sunday evening. A Tasman Low will subsequently form and stall within our swell window, producing plenty of S'ly swell.
The first pulse is due Monday but places picking up the most size will be poor with a fresh S/SW tending S/SE breeze.
A secondary pulse for Tuesday should see south facing beaches on the North Coast reaching 6-8ft during the afternoon, while more protected points and reefs should be a good 5ft. The Goldy won't see much size on the open beaches, but the Tweed should offer 6ft+ sets into the afternoon. Hit up the morning for the best conditions under a SW'ly before a shift to the SE during the day.
Wednesday morning will be the pick of the week though as a more favourable pulse of S/SE groundswell fills in from the fetch shown in the image to the right. We're looking at strong 6-8ft sets across south and semi-open beaches on the North Coast, with the Goldy seeing good sets to 2-3ft on the open beaches, with 6ft+ surf on the Tweed. Winds will be offshore from the SW during the morning, so make the most of the ideal conditions.
The rest of the week will see a dropping SE swell with Thursday morning looking excellent again under light W'ly winds, capping off a great spring week of swell.
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
There's a couple of possibilities longer term, mainly aimed around a deepening surface trough sliding up the East Coast. We're probably looking a building S/SE tending E/SE swell but we'll keep an eye on this.