Submitted by Craig on Fri, 11/01/2013 - 08:07
Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st November)
Apologies for the computer model forecast downtime, we're battling some gremlins in the system but hope to have it back ASAP
This weekend (Nov 2-3)
Saturday morning will be the pick of the weekend with favourable winds early and a small swell to 3-4ft suited to the beaches east of Melbourne. The Surf Coast will see small leftover 1-2ft waves with the exposed beaches being the pick. More specifically wind wise, an early N/NW breeze will swing W/NW during the morning ahead of a fresh W/SW change.
Sunday should see a building SW swell as a strong cold front (seen right) pushes up into the state, but conditions will be poor. The Surf Coast should reach 4-5ft into the afternoon, with 6-8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula, but early and fresh W'ly winds will swing strong SW during the day.
Next week (Nov 4-8)
Sunday's swell will ease though Monday from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula but conditions will remain poor with a moderate to fresh S/SW breeze.
Tuesday isn't looking any better with a lingering S/SE wind and easing mix of swells.
Wednesday and Thursday are the pick next week as a long-range and very inconsistent but strong W/SW groundswell fills in (origin shown in image to right). A peak in size is expected during Wednesday afternoon to 2-3ft across the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. N/NE winds should favour the more exposed breaks across both coasts as the swell builds during the morning before E/SE sea breezes kick in.
A slow drop in size is expected through Thursday as N'ly winds give way to a S/SW change as a surface trough moves in across the state, so try and surf during the morning for the biggest and cleanest waves.
Longer term (Nov 9 onwards)
A strong blocking high will move in from the west next weekend and this will put a block on our main swell windows while also aiming poor SE winds across the state.
awesome to see the swell is going to pick up. but with 5 to 6 ft waves the beaches will struggle to hold that size and more than likely it will just start closing out. by the look it will be tomorrow morning and afternoon a few beers and a bet on the ggesss
thanks for the report great job
I like this style of forecast informative and the graphics are a nice extra.
Hope your wrong about the size on Wednesday (beachies wont hold it)
Starting to go crazy at the moment, need a decent run of NE winds and beachie size swells.
well today the southerly has hit and its crap but yesterday had a pretty good session at gunna / had to laugh the only time my kids have ever help me finish off a job was yesterday because they needed a surf and so did I.
It was only 2 to 4 ft and a lot of fun. I reckon we get more consistent Northerly's in winter not sure if this is true but it is just an observation. Maybe the swellnet forecasters could put that one to bed.
going to head up to mordy surf today just to have a look at the superfish.
I think you suggested earlier in the week to check out the superfish.
Craig's forecast was one of the best things about the previous version of the site. How come its buried in the forums now???
its buried in the forum because there is no forecast up and running. assuming with most new things there will be problems for a short time. the surf is shit on the Mornington pen today long term forecast have to work Monday can't surf, may surf Tuesday morning then beers and gggessss that's my forecast. Nothing hi tech only to say if the southerly hangs around there's no a crumpet to surf
@ Old grey, If your talking North-North West winds than yes there would be perhaps more of those in the winter months, but NE-E heaps heaps more from to Summer-Autumn, don't know about Gunna but Wollys is straight offshore in a NE to E and if onshore better in SE sea breeze rather than a SW.
Was offshore here early yesterday but went moderate SW about 10am and the swell period was pretty average and banks pretty crappy and heaps of crew around.
Really need a few days of NE-E wind with a small long period swell to groom the banks.
Birdseye, it's a temporary fix, but we'll have these notes on the report pages in the near future.
And I agree with Indo Old Grey, autmun/spring is where you see the northerlies more often, but if we see the storm track focussed towards WA through winter, that's when you'll get the northerlies persisting across Victoria.
with the surf forecast down anyone able to forecast Tuesday. I have never tracked the storms from WA will start to take a closer look , sounds real interesting, will read more