Submitted by Craig on Mon, 04/28/2014 - 17:24
Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Monday 28th April)
Best Days: Tuesday at exposed spots, Thursday morning, Sunday morning
After a great day of waves Friday, Saturday was poor with a tiny leftover swell and offshore winds from the W/NW.
A strong change during the day brought a good increase in swell and this held in at 2-3ft Sunday morning as winds tended offshore.
A secondary reinforcing SW swell has kept 2-3ft waves hitting Clifton into this morning, above model forecasts and all day N'ly winds provided plenty of options across the coast.
This week and Saturday (Apr 28 – May 3)
The surf is expected to bottom out through tomorrow, but exposed locations should have small clean waves with a strong N'ly ahead of a late and probably after dark SW change.
This change will be linked to a cold front pushing across the state and with this we should see a small increase in W/SW swell to 2ft during Wednesday afternoon but winds will be poor and fresh from the SW.
Thursday will be better as the swell eases and winds swing N/NW but there won't be much size above 1-2ft.
Into the end of the week we should see a strong new W/SW swell filling in ahead of a peak Saturday morning.
This is being generated by two systems that are firing up the south-west of WA. The first is a tight but intense polar low, but of greater significance is a broader secondary front firing up over the top of the low, aiming a fetch of SW gales through our western swell window while tracking east-northeast towards Vicco.
This should generate a good pulse of W/SW groundswell, building Friday afternoon to 2ft+ before peaking Saturday morning to 2-3ft across Clifton. Winds through the building stages are expected to be onshore and from the S/SW, and Saturday also looks average with a strong S'ly as a deep Tasman Low forms off our East Coast.
This Sunday onwards (May 4 onwards)
The deepening Tasman Low mentioned above is expected to generate a short-lived increase in S/SE swell as an in-feed of strong to gale-force S/SE winds form on its south-west flank, in our swell window.
Winds with this swell are expected to be from the W/NW, opening up a few locations with the funky S/SE direction.
This swell is then expected to fade into Monday but better pulses of W/SW groundswell are due to take its place. We'll discuss this in more detail on Wednesday though.