Submitted by mundies on Sun, 04/27/2014 - 16:59
Heading to mid north coast tomorrow. noticed on LT forecast Saturday 3rd May is 1.7m WSW at 254 degrees. 2-3 ft and I think 5-6 SF beaches. Is this a computer modelling error? Ie swell direction & resultant wave size prediction? wSW for an ESE facing coast at only 1.7m doesn't make sense to me. No other swells in the water either.
From what I could see anyway....
Not sure if we're looking at the same page Mundies. I've pulled up our Coffs forecast and it's showing a W/SW swell at 1.2m on May 3rd but the predicted 'surf height' is just 1-2ft at south facing beaches (it should be disregarding the W/SW swell train). See below for a screen grab.
There is currently a 5-6ft forecast at south facing beaches for Monday 5th May but this is related to a modelled southerly swell (2.3m ! 13 sec, 194 degrees is S/SW).
Learn how to read a forecast map champ. Strong westerly change moving through means no surf but good for beach fishing.
Thanks dudette, I can which was why I was wondering about the forecast. Thanks Ben, I took a screenshot of the forecast but its in my daughters room on an iPad so will try to remember to put it up later.
Has the front on Wed been severly downgraded?
I glanced at a BoM chart a couple days ago and remember thinking "fuck, brissie's getting it first winter blast on wed." Now it looks like the northern reach has been curtailed, but still blowing a hell of a w'ly on the mid north.
OK got a bit of time from kiddies -actually no, I'm getting hammered. It was actually the sunday that had the 2-3 / 5-6SF forecast. Swell direction on that day was SW not WSW and 2.5m. Haven't checked todays forecast yet because my 18 month old has learnt how to turn on the microwave in the camper trailer...
OK had a quick look and seems swell is now due on monday stretching out to wednesday. Last handful of days we are hanging here so maybe some point surf. Fun 2ft or so shallow high tide A frame beaches with a couple of barrels this morning. Could be worse...
Yeah still a pretty flukey system at the moment. Has the potential to be quite big but also could easily be downgraded in the next few days. Overall I'm pretty confident for something sizey but it'll probably be through Mon/Tues. Should be some good surf tomorrow arvo too!
Cheers for the personal swell forecasting & meteorological education services Ben! Good stuff. Slightly bigger on the point this arvo but still tiny in my book so surfed the back beach 2-3ft. Trialing a new camper trailer & having fun with that.
So how'd you go on the weekend Mundies? Did the south swell kick in yesty arvo?
Just 2ft or so beachies, coupla outliers very late arvo but still only a ft or so. Woke up this morning to 6ft plus outside point but not refracting in properly, 2-3ft on point. Hopefully tide will help it to hit the point a bit better
Looks like next pulse wed/Thursday has a slightly better direction