Mid north coast NSW forecast

mundies's picture
mundies started the topic in Sunday, 27 Apr 2014 at 4:59pm

Heading to mid north coast tomorrow. noticed on LT forecast Saturday 3rd May is 1.7m WSW at 254 degrees. 2-3 ft and I think 5-6 SF beaches. Is this a computer modelling error? Ie swell direction & resultant wave size prediction? wSW for an ESE facing coast at only 1.7m doesn't make sense to me. No other swells in the water either.

mundies's picture
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mundies commented Sunday, 27 Apr 2014 at 5:00pm

From what I could see anyway....

mundies

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 27 Apr 2014 at 5:49pm

Not sure if we're looking at the same page Mundies. I've pulled up our Coffs forecast and it's showing a W/SW swell at 1.2m on May 3rd but the predicted 'surf height' is just 1-2ft at south facing beaches (it should be disregarding the W/SW swell train). See below for a screen grab.

There is currently a 5-6ft forecast at south facing beaches for Monday 5th May but this is related to a modelled southerly swell (2.3m ! 13 sec, 194 degrees is S/SW).

https://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/new-south-wales/coffs-harbour...

dudette's picture
dudette's picture
dudette commented Sunday, 27 Apr 2014 at 8:04pm

Learn how to read a forecast map champ. Strong westerly change moving through means no surf but good for beach fishing.

mundies's picture
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mundies commented Sunday, 27 Apr 2014 at 10:48pm

Thanks dudette, I can which was why I was wondering about the forecast. Thanks Ben, I took a screenshot of the forecast but its in my daughters room on an iPad so will try to remember to put it up later.

mundies

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Monday, 28 Apr 2014 at 12:13am

Has the front on Wed been severly downgraded?
I glanced at a BoM chart a couple days ago and remember thinking "fuck, brissie's getting it first winter blast on wed." Now it looks like the northern reach has been curtailed, but still blowing a hell of a w'ly on the mid north.

mundies's picture
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mundies commented Wednesday, 30 Apr 2014 at 7:45pm

OK got a bit of time from kiddies -actually no, I'm getting hammered. It was actually the sunday that had the 2-3 / 5-6SF forecast. Swell direction on that day was SW not WSW and 2.5m. Haven't checked todays forecast yet because my 18 month old has learnt how to turn on the microwave in the camper trailer...

mundies

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mundies commented Wednesday, 30 Apr 2014 at 7:49pm

OK had a quick look and seems swell is now due on monday stretching out to wednesday. Last handful of days we are hanging here so maybe some point surf. Fun 2ft or so shallow high tide A frame beaches with a couple of barrels this morning. Could be worse...

mundies

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Wednesday, 30 Apr 2014 at 7:56pm

Yeah still a pretty flukey system at the moment. Has the potential to be quite big but also could easily be downgraded in the next few days. Overall I'm pretty confident for something sizey but it'll probably be through Mon/Tues. Should be some good surf tomorrow arvo too!

mundies's picture
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mundies commented Thursday, 1 May 2014 at 2:48pm

Cheers for the personal swell forecasting & meteorological education services Ben! Good stuff. Slightly bigger on the point this arvo but still tiny in my book so surfed the back beach 2-3ft. Trialing a new camper trailer & having fun with that.

mundies

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Monday, 5 May 2014 at 7:34am

So how'd you go on the weekend Mundies? Did the south swell kick in yesty arvo?

mundies's picture
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mundies commented Monday, 5 May 2014 at 8:14am

Just 2ft or so beachies, coupla outliers very late arvo but still only a ft or so. Woke up this morning to 6ft plus outside point but not refracting in properly, 2-3ft on point. Hopefully tide will help it to hit the point a bit better

mundies

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mundies commented Monday, 5 May 2014 at 12:21pm

Looks like next pulse wed/Thursday has a slightly better direction

mundies